The Guide
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EDIT: Forgot to include in original post. If you purchase 7 horses twice for 14 rolls, the price will remain the same until you start buying rolls in intervals of 15. That is why I included 2 "5 premium per fodder" in all of my calculations. Basically your first 29 purchased rolls all cost 5 pp each... As long as you buy 2 7's instead of only buying the 15 fodder option.
This guide may be controversial since it involves stealing from other players, but it's the best way to play this event.
I'm going to establish 3 goals, spend budget of 1500 pp, spend budget of 5000 pp, and spend budget of 20000 pp. If you don't want to go by those numbers, you can come to your own conclusion.
First, we need to see what 10% warehouse costs
3667 trophies per 10% warehouse
Now we need to find best way to value your premium spend per 10% warehouse
We will be analyzing the approximate value of starting to roll dice at a reward of 500, 1500, and 2500 (Only roll the 5% unless the 10% gets to above 1000 trophies. 10%,25% and no % odds are awful)
Estimated reward structure is here (this is averaging out everything. You will have good and bad RNG. In the end, math is the winner)
Obviously if people in your group constantly ran up the numbers giving you many chances at 2500 trophy wins, your average ROI would be pretty good, almost triple of rolling at base jackpot rate. It is heavily dependent on your group
Here is the average ROI at each "steal" level
When calculating what you're looking to pay per warehouse %, I usually go with 200 pp for 10% warehouse as a "prime" reward. For "average event" I would say 10% warehouse for 350 pp is the current average among all events if you spend more
Here is a calculation at each trophy level if you would be able to average a rate of 350 premium per 10% warehouse received, and the true wh% you'd actually earn at each spend level if you spent 350 premium
True WH earned means how much average WH you would earn if you spent 350 pp on a given rate. This does not mean if true WH earned is 19% on 5 single odds that you would receive 19% WH for just 15 carrots.
1500 pp spenders:
5000 pp spenders:
You would still want to wait until the event hits 1500+ or higher trophies. The reality is that the 500 trophy offer starting amount sucks and doesn't warrant spending on it.
You'd be looking to spend 1000 pp per day, so you'd either be able to do the 5,5,10,15,20 and half of the 25 at single odds.
You could also do the double odds at 15,15,20,25 (2/3rds of the 25)
Surprisingly enough, if you have a budget of 1000 premium or more and are trying to average out your rewards (AND YOU WILL DEFINITELY SPEND OVER 1K PP), then double odds is better if you start at 1500+
It might be shocking, but when you average cost evaluate everything, the double odds just pays better in the long run.
For spenders over 20,000 premium:
In conclusion, using the "double odds" chance is a great choice if you're aiming to steal races from other players. If you're growing the jackpot yourself to take, then stick to single odds, but be prepared to roll 20,30,40 times to hit that jackpot. My longest dry streak was 41 rolls in a row AT DOUBLE ODDS so sometimes the odds are NOT in your favor and you might have to dip into your pp reserves.
All calculations were based on average for "sniping" the jackpot from others at either a 5% of 10% rate. These calculations did not include +75 added for each race, and that can be a decisive factor if you're growing your own jackpot and not watching the event 24/7... so just keep that in mind
-STEVE
Here is also the traditional rate you'd expect if you want to play the game without trying to steal anything. This calculates the 25 guaranteed trophies, the 500 base rewards, and the +75 reward accrued from each loss
This way isn't bad either. 125 is the locked in rate if you play until you win (AND ARE GUARANTEED THE WIN --> PROBLEM HERE IS YOU NEED TO BE GUARANTEED THE WIN AND WILLING TO SPEND UNTIL YOU WIN + CAN BE STOLEN BY SNIPERS SO IT IS MUCH RISKIER)
This guide may be controversial since it involves stealing from other players, but it's the best way to play this event.
I'm going to establish 3 goals, spend budget of 1500 pp, spend budget of 5000 pp, and spend budget of 20000 pp. If you don't want to go by those numbers, you can come to your own conclusion.
First, we need to see what 10% warehouse costs
3667 trophies per 10% warehouse
Now we need to find best way to value your premium spend per 10% warehouse
We will be analyzing the approximate value of starting to roll dice at a reward of 500, 1500, and 2500 (Only roll the 5% unless the 10% gets to above 1000 trophies. 10%,25% and no % odds are awful)
Estimated reward structure is here (this is averaging out everything. You will have good and bad RNG. In the end, math is the winner)
Obviously if people in your group constantly ran up the numbers giving you many chances at 2500 trophy wins, your average ROI would be pretty good, almost triple of rolling at base jackpot rate. It is heavily dependent on your group
Here is the average ROI at each "steal" level
When calculating what you're looking to pay per warehouse %, I usually go with 200 pp for 10% warehouse as a "prime" reward. For "average event" I would say 10% warehouse for 350 pp is the current average among all events if you spend more
Here is a calculation at each trophy level if you would be able to average a rate of 350 premium per 10% warehouse received, and the true wh% you'd actually earn at each spend level if you spent 350 premium
True WH earned means how much average WH you would earn if you spent 350 pp on a given rate. This does not mean if true WH earned is 19% on 5 single odds that you would receive 19% WH for just 15 carrots.
1500 pp spenders:
For a 1500 premium spender, the end result is that you'd likely want to wait until the event hits 1500+ or higher trophies, and only spend 300 premium per day (5 cost per carrot, 5 cost per carrot, 10 cost per carrot) and ONLY do "single odds"
This will total to 300 premium spent per day, and since the event is 5 days long, that will be 500 premium spent.
With this method you'll receive 34 free carrots, 30 carrots at a rate of 5 pp per carrot, and 15 carrots at a rate of 10 pp per carrot.
79 carrots should average you 7900 trophies or 22% warehouse per day
This will total to 300 premium spent per day, and since the event is 5 days long, that will be 500 premium spent.
With this method you'll receive 34 free carrots, 30 carrots at a rate of 5 pp per carrot, and 15 carrots at a rate of 10 pp per carrot.
79 carrots should average you 7900 trophies or 22% warehouse per day
5000 pp spenders:
You would still want to wait until the event hits 1500+ or higher trophies. The reality is that the 500 trophy offer starting amount sucks and doesn't warrant spending on it.
You'd be looking to spend 1000 pp per day, so you'd either be able to do the 5,5,10,15,20 and half of the 25 at single odds.
You could also do the double odds at 15,15,20,25 (2/3rds of the 25)
Surprisingly enough, if you have a budget of 1000 premium or more and are trying to average out your rewards (AND YOU WILL DEFINITELY SPEND OVER 1K PP), then double odds is better if you start at 1500+
It might be shocking, but when you average cost evaluate everything, the double odds just pays better in the long run.
For spenders over 20,000 premium:
Any spender over 20,000 premium is a bit tricky. If you start at the 500 level, I'd suggest buying at single odds for a little bit until you reach 1500 trophies., then you can choose to double odds after that. Since every horse run adds +75 to the event, ramping that up at normal cost and then using double odds comes at your advantage. If nobody is trying to steal your race, you can do single odds all the way until you win... But if people are sniping you have to protect your investment with double odds.
Since you're spending so much premium per day, you may not have infinite opportunities to snipe other players' races, so you will have to create those jackpots yourselves.
If you plan to just win every race you make, instead of sniping anyone else.... Just do single odds all the time.
Since you are basically guaranteed to win the race and keep getting +75 added to the winning total, double odds would just be a waste of 10 premium points as you are going to win the race anyways.
If you see a jackpot randomly at 1500+ though and you want to snag it from someone else, then double odds is suggested.... Additionally if you notice players trying to steal your jackpots, double odds is also likely to be necessary.
Since you're spending so much premium per day, you may not have infinite opportunities to snipe other players' races, so you will have to create those jackpots yourselves.
If you plan to just win every race you make, instead of sniping anyone else.... Just do single odds all the time.
Since you are basically guaranteed to win the race and keep getting +75 added to the winning total, double odds would just be a waste of 10 premium points as you are going to win the race anyways.
If you see a jackpot randomly at 1500+ though and you want to snag it from someone else, then double odds is suggested.... Additionally if you notice players trying to steal your jackpots, double odds is also likely to be necessary.
In conclusion, using the "double odds" chance is a great choice if you're aiming to steal races from other players. If you're growing the jackpot yourself to take, then stick to single odds, but be prepared to roll 20,30,40 times to hit that jackpot. My longest dry streak was 41 rolls in a row AT DOUBLE ODDS so sometimes the odds are NOT in your favor and you might have to dip into your pp reserves.
All calculations were based on average for "sniping" the jackpot from others at either a 5% of 10% rate. These calculations did not include +75 added for each race, and that can be a decisive factor if you're growing your own jackpot and not watching the event 24/7... so just keep that in mind
-STEVE
Here is also the traditional rate you'd expect if you want to play the game without trying to steal anything. This calculates the 25 guaranteed trophies, the 500 base rewards, and the +75 reward accrued from each loss
This way isn't bad either. 125 is the locked in rate if you play until you win (AND ARE GUARANTEED THE WIN --> PROBLEM HERE IS YOU NEED TO BE GUARANTEED THE WIN AND WILLING TO SPEND UNTIL YOU WIN + CAN BE STOLEN BY SNIPERS SO IT IS MUCH RISKIER)
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