MichielK
Guest
Hi everyone,
In an earlier thread, I've tried to tackle the problem of TW's lack of victory conditions. One of the issues we came across was that there's no real objective way to determine how power is concentrated in W16.
As you know, I like working with statistics. What you may not know is that I have a degree in economics. In this thread I'm going to try to combine the two...and don't worry, you won't need to know a thing about economics to follow it
I've picked two variables that are commonly used in economics to determine market power:
1) C4 ratio, which stands for the total market share of the top 4 companies
2) The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), which is a bit more complex
Both variables are expressed as a percentage, and a higher percentage means a higher concentration of power.
I've also decided to ignore tribeless players. This is nothing personal, but it makes data collection a lot quicker :icon_wink:
First, let's look at the C4 ratio:
- C4 (based on points): 58.8%
- C4 (based on villages): 56.4%
A number around 60% indicates that the market is a so-called oligopoly. What this means is that a few tribes (companies) control the majority of the world (market).
Examples of real-life oligopolies are the markets for beer, automobiles, airplanes and cola...everyone can name a few companies that make cola, but most people won't be able to name 20 :icon_wink:
Second, let's look at the HHI:
- HHI (points): 10.52%
- HHI (villages): 9.79%
For the HHI, a percentage above 10% indicates the market is moderately concentrated, while a percentage above 18% indicates the market is heavily concentrated.
If you invert the number, it gives you the amount of equal-sized tribes that would give the same concentration of power. In this case, the world shows the same concentration as a world with 9.5 equally-sized tribes (or 10.2, based on villages).
Both variables show that the power in this world shows moderate concentration, but we're pretty far from being a "monopoly". In other words: while the world isn't won yet, a relatively low number of tribes have a stranglehold on it and new tribes are extremely unlikely to succeed. That sounds about right, doesn't it?
Now, the value of these numbers is obviously not in just doing one analysis and forgetting about it. By doing it on a regular basis, there are a lot of questions you can answer objectively. For example, this is a more objective way of looking at how close we are to the end of the world than through the Countdown thread, since it takes into account not merely the amount of tribes but their relative size.
It can also provide an objective answer to more specific questions. Here are some examples of things we've discussed recently that can be answered with these numbers:
- How big of an impact does Dust (or Coal, or SA) make in the southeast?
- Is the movement of players from BANG to Plight a major world event?
- Will W16 be done earlier than W15?
I'm going to post new numbers at regular intervals and after big events, and provide my own analysis. Hopefully it will spark some debate and give us some facts instead of opinions to use in many discussions. If not, I just wasted 30 minutes on the public forums. Wouldn't be the first time :lol:
In an earlier thread, I've tried to tackle the problem of TW's lack of victory conditions. One of the issues we came across was that there's no real objective way to determine how power is concentrated in W16.
As you know, I like working with statistics. What you may not know is that I have a degree in economics. In this thread I'm going to try to combine the two...and don't worry, you won't need to know a thing about economics to follow it
I've picked two variables that are commonly used in economics to determine market power:
1) C4 ratio, which stands for the total market share of the top 4 companies
2) The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), which is a bit more complex
Both variables are expressed as a percentage, and a higher percentage means a higher concentration of power.
I've also decided to ignore tribeless players. This is nothing personal, but it makes data collection a lot quicker :icon_wink:
First, let's look at the C4 ratio:
- C4 (based on points): 58.8%
- C4 (based on villages): 56.4%
A number around 60% indicates that the market is a so-called oligopoly. What this means is that a few tribes (companies) control the majority of the world (market).
Examples of real-life oligopolies are the markets for beer, automobiles, airplanes and cola...everyone can name a few companies that make cola, but most people won't be able to name 20 :icon_wink:
Second, let's look at the HHI:
- HHI (points): 10.52%
- HHI (villages): 9.79%
For the HHI, a percentage above 10% indicates the market is moderately concentrated, while a percentage above 18% indicates the market is heavily concentrated.
If you invert the number, it gives you the amount of equal-sized tribes that would give the same concentration of power. In this case, the world shows the same concentration as a world with 9.5 equally-sized tribes (or 10.2, based on villages).
Both variables show that the power in this world shows moderate concentration, but we're pretty far from being a "monopoly". In other words: while the world isn't won yet, a relatively low number of tribes have a stranglehold on it and new tribes are extremely unlikely to succeed. That sounds about right, doesn't it?
Now, the value of these numbers is obviously not in just doing one analysis and forgetting about it. By doing it on a regular basis, there are a lot of questions you can answer objectively. For example, this is a more objective way of looking at how close we are to the end of the world than through the Countdown thread, since it takes into account not merely the amount of tribes but their relative size.
It can also provide an objective answer to more specific questions. Here are some examples of things we've discussed recently that can be answered with these numbers:
- How big of an impact does Dust (or Coal, or SA) make in the southeast?
- Is the movement of players from BANG to Plight a major world event?
- Will W16 be done earlier than W15?
I'm going to post new numbers at regular intervals and after big events, and provide my own analysis. Hopefully it will spark some debate and give us some facts instead of opinions to use in many discussions. If not, I just wasted 30 minutes on the public forums. Wouldn't be the first time :lol: