Concentration of power

MichielK

Guest
I disagree:

(Stats removed to save space - MK)

Plight has rarely nobled Ni! villages, so how can you say this boosts their stats?

Because it does?

Come on...we're discussing a week in which Plight nobled 45 villages from Ni, and more than half of those conquers came from players who were in Plight a week ago. Yeah, I'm pretty comfortable with saying that this boosts their stats.

In fact, considering the 2.5 million points worth of (I suspect) inactives moving from Plight to Ni, I imagine this behavior will continue for another few weeks. That'll influence the weekly CoP changes significantly (to the tune of 0.40%).

Your stats show that this is not common behavior in the Plight-Ni relationship, and I agree; I expect that it was done to make room for the people who went from Ni to Plight. However, the fact that it's uncommon makes it more important to point it out when it happens.

After all, it wouldn't be much of a statistical analysis if I posted the numbers and then said "hey, that's weird. *SEND*" :icon_wink:
 

DeletedUser

Guest
He was referring to the exchange of players between the two.
 

MichielK

Guest
He was referring to the exchange of players between the two.

If he was: the Plight-Ni move caused a 1.5% increase in CoP, which is more than we normally gain in a week and a half...so obviously significant to the analysis.
 

DeletedUser

Guest
That's not what I said. Let me reprhase:

If C² takes a LSHRV village, that's +1 for C² and -1 for LSHRV, creating a net result for the top 4 of zero. It does not mean it's not being counted at all.
No, you worded it fine. It was me that worded it badly. I understood exactly what you said, and I meant to say something along the lines of them canceling each other out. My bad.
 

DeletedUser

Guest
This policy increases Plight's net nobling rate by about 40-50 villages a week.

This was part of your post that I disagreed with. It may have happened for one week, but you can't claim that it has boosted their stats every week.

But, if you were speaking of just last week, sorry, I misunderstood what you meant.
 

MichielK

Guest
This was part of your post that I disagreed with. It may have happened for one week, but you can't claim that it has boosted their stats every week.

But, if you were speaking of just last week, sorry, I misunderstood what you meant.

Last week and the upcoming weeks, but not historically.

Judging by the amount of points moved from Plight to Ni, I think the effect of Plight-Ni conquers will last about a month (unless Plight has more players to move), and then we're back to business as usual again...and Plight will still top the conquer rankings, unless the Ad Inf (possible) or LSHRV (very unlikely) wars are decided by then.
 

MichielK

Guest
W16 update

Points-based:
C4: 71.55% (+ 0.44%)
HHI: 14.52% (+ 0.16%)

Village-based:
C4: 69.56% (+ 0.54%)
HHI: 13.81% (+ 0.19%)

By popular demand:
Number of players that could be a top 20 tribe: 126 (+44)
Number of players that could be a top 15 tribe: 45 (+20)

Discussion
From a CoP point of view, this has been a pretty slow week. Increases in C4 and HHI are far smaller than they normally are, and I can only assume that this is because the amount of targets outside the major tribes is drying up.

An interesting development this week can be seen in the last two stats. All of a sudden, getting into the top 20 and top 15 is a lot easier. The likely reason for this is a consolidation of various smaller tribes into the new top 10 tribe STAR.

Project 1: Ups and downs

Last week, I did an analysis of the way conquers are distributed among the tribes. As some of you have pointed out to me, conquers do not tell the whole story; players may go barb, be recruited or dismissed, etc.

All valid arguments, but unfortunately I did not have the time to do a more comprehensive analysis last week. This week I'll make up for that by doing the same analysis but looking at points gains and losses instead of just conquers.

First, let's look at the tribes who gained more than 50K this week:

10 STAR 6.767.878
2 Plight 2.854.361
1 C² 1.839.585
4 BANG! 1.226.942
7 Ni! 1.135.588
3 LSHRV 969.015
5 TKR 693.275
19 I Wolf 614.015
14 I.A.R 189.946
36 OPPS! 103.053

How about the tribes who lost more than 50K?

6 Ad Inf -2.123.455
35 ~HF²~ -1.860.331
21 ~HF~ -1.593.057
25 AoFA -1.524.414
12 LSHRVa -669.618
16 -S-A- -549.453
15 cocane -438.698
11 Coal -233.714
34 ~TE~ -198.218
22 DmgInc -192.074
26 *~SS~* -130.517
18 ORC -124.011
38 Shroud -100.810
9 *MK* -96.885
27 ~KOTW~ -78.169
24 ~SAW~ -51.008

Here are some noteworthy observations:

  • There are more losing tribes (16) than winning tribes (10)
  • The losing tribes are on average much smaller (4.5 M) than the winning tribes (54.2 M)
  • The amount of gains (16.4 M) exceeds the amount of losses (10.0 M) by a wide margin. This indicates that many players became tribeless or barbarian.
In general, it's safe to say that the bigger tribes are simply eating the smaller tribes at a steady pace...a sure way for concentration to go up. There is just one notable exception to this, and they're discussed below.

Project 2: A new force, or a new food source?

Some may not agree, but from an objective point of view one of the major events this week was that players from HF, HF², AoFA and an assortment of smaller tribes decided to team up and form the new top 10 tribe STAR. In this project, I will analyse them and see if the players that joined have gained anything with this merger aside from bragging rights for "being in a top 10 tribe".

Location
First, let's look at where this tribe is concentrated:
2nd: 4 continents
3rd: 7 continents
4th: 11 continents
5th: 6 continents
6th: 3 continents
7th: 3 continents
8th: 1 continent
In other words, STAR has tribes in 35 continents while dominating none of them :icon_eek:. The only continent where they have more than a million points (2.1M in K15) is a Plight continent surrounded on 8 sides by other Plight continents.

Players
STAR has 57 members, most of whom are under 100K. While there might be some potential in those players, they're hardly a threat to anyone. On the other side of the spectrum, their top ranked players are 157th, 249th and 268th, with the rest coming in outside the top 400. To give you an indication, the biggest player by far of STAR would not be in the top 40 players of Plight or C².

Leadership
- 0508026B - took one non-barb in the past 5 weeks
- Khamrrahman - 15 tribe changes, 1 conquer, ranked outside the top 1000
Enough said, right?

Aggressiveness
Since they're recently formed, the in-game data shows about 600 players with a higher ODA than the entire tribe. However, the TW Stats data is probably more fair considering the circumstances. This shows them ranking 16th in ODA, just below the 9 remaining players in ORC and the 20 remaining inactives in LSHRVa.

Conclusion
While STAR may have entered the top 10 out of nowhere, this in itself is hardly an accomplishment. They have no concentrated power base anywhere while being spread all over the map, most of their members are small, their leadership is less than impressive, and they show little aggression.

Let's call this what it is: an attempt to point-whore into the top 10. The only true change they've brought to W16 is that most tribes can now easily mark all their food in bright red.

Food source it is.
 

DeletedUser54400

Guest
Conclusion
While STAR may have entered the top 10 out of nowhere, this in itself is hardly an accomplishment. They have no concentrated power base anywhere while being spread all over the map, most of their members are small, their leadership is less than impressive, and they show little aggression.

Let's call this what it is: an attempt to point-whore into the top 10. The only true change they've brought to W16 is that most tribes can now easily mark all their food in bright red.


Food source it is.

meh, i prefer 5 STAR food , this seems to barely get 1 :icon_sad:
 

DeletedUser

Guest
The only true change they've brought to W16 is that most tribes can now easily mark all their food in bright red.

Food source it is.

I think we should all thank them for that. It makes it so much easier and the diplomacy page won't be all cluttered up :icon_twisted:
 

DeletedUser

Guest
OK this may sound a stupid question (in fact it is) but I dont have time to read lots of pages in this forum.

Where does star come from? (I mean, is it a merge of two smaller tribes, a few top tribe players leaving and joining them...)
 

DeletedUser

Guest
OK this may sound a stupid question (in fact it is) but I dont have time to read lots of pages in this forum.

Where does star come from? (I mean, is it a merge of two smaller tribes, a few top tribe players leaving and joining them...)

It's a merge of ~HF~. ~HF²~, AoFa, and a couple others. They're very unstable lol, you'll notice their member count will go up and down multiple times a week, or even daily. . .
 

MichielK

Guest
W16 update

Points-based:
C4: 73.29% (+ 1.74%)
HHI: 15.19% (+ 0.68%)

Village-based:
C4: 71.46% (+ 1.91%)
HHI: 14.53% (+ 0.72%)

By popular demand:
Number of players that could be a top 20 tribe: 198 (+72)
Number of players that could be a top 15 tribe: 77 (+22)

Discussion
The numbers are once again back to just under 1% per week (I missed the update last week), so not really anything to report.

No projects this week...I've been away for business (and some fun) for a week, and didn't get home yesterday until it was already today :icon_wink:
 

DeletedUser

Guest
It's a merge of ~HF~. ~HF²~, AoFa, and a couple others. They're very unstable lol, you'll notice their member count will go up and down multiple times a week, or even daily. . .

they are WWE now right? those cheeky fools stole the profile description thingy that me and mr shooting wrote for the IRA almost a year ago and only changed one or two things... it even mentions the IRA on there still.... unstable thieving fools i say!!:icon_twisted:
 

DeletedUser

Guest
they are WWE now right? those cheeky fools stole the profile description thingy that me and mr shooting wrote for the IRA almost a year ago and only changed one or two things... it even mentions the IRA on there still.... unstable thieving fools i say!!:icon_twisted:

Yeah, I think that's them. They've merged and changed tribe names so many times, even I'm a bit confused now. . .
 

DeletedUser

Guest
I was actually bored enough to read their profile. I laughed hard when I came to Merging, and even harder at History
 

DeletedUser

Guest
I was actually bored enough to read their profile. I laughed hard when I came to Merging, and even harder at History


the merging and history parts are identical to the IARs page..... they just changed the name of the founder:icon_twisted:

i might have to send a few nukes at their leader to prove a point lol. that'll teach them to thieve from me
 

DeletedUser37644

Guest
the merging and history parts are identical to the IARs page..... they just changed the name of the founder:icon_twisted:

i might have to send a few nukes at their leader to prove a point lol. that'll teach them to thieve from me

Doesn't really help. I claimed at least one village from all their old names, tribes that have roots to them, and their current name. They have no fear of death... :icon_eek:
 
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