Countdown, continued

Blitzen09

Guest
Thanks Blitz for fixing it when I was away.
No problem I enjoy this thread. :icon_razz:

Hmmm I guess I could kill some boredom doing more stats, now just to find which folder my stats sheet is in XD
 

urk4ever

Guest
Aww I believe I was the last to attack you before you quit last time? :p
You and belidin still playing on the other country servers?
That was when i started attacking you :p
Me with my small account (200K) and you surrounding me everywhere :icon_wink:
I gave you some fun to deal with :icon_razz:

But Beldin quit completely some time ago and just started again and i am allready playing here again for about 2 or 3 months.
 

tokstolle

Guest
2009-05-23
Length of time since last post: Approximately 7 Day(s)

Players:
Players left: 769 (Down 17)
Players - More than 0 points: 763 (Down 14)
Players - More than 500k points: 573 (Down 8)
Players - More than 1mil points: 498 (Down 3)
Players - More than 5mil points: 206 (Same)
Players - More than 10mil points: 65 (Same)
Players - More than 15mil points: 22 (Up 1)
Players - More than 20mil points: 4 (Same)

Tribes:
Only includes top 40 members:
Tribes left: 73 (Up 1)
Tribes - More than 0 points: 41 (Up 2)
Tribes - More than 10mil points: 20 (Same)
Tribes - More than 100mil points: 10 (Same)

Total villages in w2: 273.838 (Up 7)

World 1 players left
735 (Down 12)


Guess on the date of the last day of this world encouraged :)

Alex
2009-05-30
Length of time since last post: Approximately 7 Day(s)

Players:
Players left: 757 (Down 12)
Players - More than 0 points: 750 (Down 13)
Players - More than 500k points: 563 (Down 10)
Players - More than 1mil points: 488 (Down 10)
Players - More than 5mil points: 205 (Down 1)
Players - More than 10mil points: 65 (Same)
Players - More than 15mil points: 21 (Down 1)
Players - More than 20mil points: 4 (Same)

Tribes:
Only includes top 40 members:
Tribes left: 72 (Down 1)
Tribes - More than 0 points: 40 (Down 1)
Tribes - More than 10mil points: 20 (Same)
Tribes - More than 100mil points: 10 (Same)

Total villages in w2: 273.843 (Up 5)

World 1 players left
726 (Down 9)


Guess on the date of the last day of this world encouraged :)

Alex
 

DeletedUser2566

Guest
closing date for worlds could get people to actually attack
 

tokstolle

Guest
2009-05-30
Length of time since last post: Approximately 7 Day(s)

Players:
Players left: 757 (Down 12)
Players - More than 0 points: 750 (Down 13)
Players - More than 500k points: 563 (Down 10)
Players - More than 1mil points: 488 (Down 10)
Players - More than 5mil points: 205 (Down 1)
Players - More than 10mil points: 65 (Same)
Players - More than 15mil points: 21 (Down 1)
Players - More than 20mil points: 4 (Same)

Tribes:
Only includes top 40 members:
Tribes left: 72 (Down 1)
Tribes - More than 0 points: 40 (Down 1)
Tribes - More than 10mil points: 20 (Same)
Tribes - More than 100mil points: 10 (Same)

Total villages in w2: 273.843 (Up 5)

World 1 players left
726 (Down 9)


Guess on the date of the last day of this world encouraged :)

Alex
2009-06-06
Length of time since last post: Approximately 7 Day(s)

Players:
Players left: 748 (Down 9)
Players - More than 0 points: 742 (Down 8)
Players - More than 500k points: 550 (Down 13)
Players - More than 1mil points: 480 (Down 8)
Players - More than 5mil points: 208 (Up 3)
Players - More than 10mil points: 67 (Up 2)
Players - More than 15mil points: 23 (Up 2)
Players - More than 20mil points: 4 (Same)

Tribes:
Only includes top 40 members:
Tribes left: 70 (Down 2)
Tribes - More than 0 points: 38 (Down 2)
Tribes - More than 10mil points: 19 (Down 1)
Tribes - More than 100mil points: 10 (Same)

Total villages in w2: 273.845 (Up 2)

World 1 players left
706 (Down 20)

Last week we had the lowest rate of playerlost since I took over this, this when w1 at the same time had the highest lost of players.

Guess on the date of the last day of this world encouraged :)

Alex
 

Blitzen09

Guest
Using a very crude process to guess the date I have come up with December 9th, 2009 as my latest guess. That is give or take a few weeks, and when they actually end it, if they allow us to play w2 till it has just one person left or not.

The very crude process I used was to take the current data and break it down into about 100 periods, there are just about 4 that almost had perfect fits of 100 days give or take a few. In the first period of the data we were losing people at about 116 people a day. The second was about 36. The third was about 14. The fourth about 7. So i figured out how many times does 36 go into 116, about 3. Than i figured how many times does 14 go into 36 about 2 and a half. Than I figured how many times does 7 go into 14 ... 2.

So than my next guess would be a number that goes into 7 about 1.5 times, that being somewhere between 4 and 5 I used a decrease of 5 players a day for 100 days from our current number, than I used a decrease of 3.5 yes I know it doesnt fit the pattern I was working with but that pattern would have been to use 5 for another hundred days which I figured would change by than so i skipped it we will see if that was a should do or not later....

so that brought me to use just 3 to see where that would take us. Than I used 2.5 for nearly the next 100 but that ended my search as I stumbled on a possible answer to the riddle at which I spend my very scarce moments of free time pondering.....

Ok so the model I used to guess the end date last time is about 300 people off from where it should be so unless the rate of people dropping speeds up any we will be playing well into 2010. :) I will try and get a new prediction up next time I get into this topic :lol:
 

tokstolle

Guest
2009-06-06
Length of time since last post: Approximately 7 Day(s)

Players:
Players left: 748 (Down 9)
Players - More than 0 points: 742 (Down 8)
Players - More than 500k points: 550 (Down 13)
Players - More than 1mil points: 480 (Down 8)
Players - More than 5mil points: 208 (Up 3)
Players - More than 10mil points: 67 (Up 2)
Players - More than 15mil points: 23 (Up 2)
Players - More than 20mil points: 4 (Same)

Tribes:
Only includes top 40 members:
Tribes left: 70 (Down 2)
Tribes - More than 0 points: 38 (Down 2)
Tribes - More than 10mil points: 19 (Down 1)
Tribes - More than 100mil points: 10 (Same)

Total villages in w2: 273.845 (Up 2)

World 1 players left
706 (Down 20)

Last week we had the lowest rate of playerlost since I took over this, this when w1 at the same time had the highest lost of players.

Guess on the date of the last day of this world encouraged :)

Alex
2009-06-13
Length of time since last post: Approximately 7 Day(s)

Players:
Players left: 738 (Down 10)
Players - More than 0 points: 729 (Down 13)
Players - More than 500k points: 541 (Down 9)
Players - More than 1mil points: 474 (Down 6)
Players - More than 5mil points: 210 (Up 2)
Players - More than 10mil points: 69 (Up 2)
Players - More than 15mil points: 24 (Up 1)
Players - More than 20mil points: 6 (Up 2)

Tribes:
Only includes top 40 members:
Tribes left: 67 (Down 3)
Tribes - More than 0 points: 35 (Down 3)
Tribes - More than 10mil points: 18 (Down 1)
Tribes - More than 100mil points: 8 (Down 2)

Total villages in w2: 273.846 (Up 1)

World 1 players left
691 (Down 15)

Last week did two more players hit the 20 million mark, first me and short after did Mikeys hit it. That we did hit it about the same time was not a suprise as we have been at about the same points for some times now (despite that I have 130 more villages).

Also can be noted that the numbers of restart for the last weeks have been pretty low with only one this week.

Last comment that I will do is that world 1 is now under 700 players, but this time I donät belive w2 will hit that mark as fast as when the 800 mark was hit. That is becuase the loosing of players is at this time higher in w1 than in w2.


Guess on the date of the last day of this world encouraged :)

Alex
 

tokstolle

Guest
2009-06-13
Length of time since last post: Approximately 7 Day(s)

Players:
Players left: 738 (Down 10)
Players - More than 0 points: 729 (Down 13)
Players - More than 500k points: 541 (Down 9)
Players - More than 1mil points: 474 (Down 6)
Players - More than 5mil points: 210 (Up 2)
Players - More than 10mil points: 69 (Up 2)
Players - More than 15mil points: 24 (Up 1)
Players - More than 20mil points: 6 (Up 2)

Tribes:
Only includes top 40 members:
Tribes left: 67 (Down 3)
Tribes - More than 0 points: 35 (Down 3)
Tribes - More than 10mil points: 18 (Down 1)
Tribes - More than 100mil points: 8 (Down 2)

Total villages in w2: 273.846 (Up 1)

World 1 players left
691 (Down 15)

Last week did two more players hit the 20 million mark, first me and short after did Mikeys hit it. That we did hit it about the same time was not a suprise as we have been at about the same points for some times now (despite that I have 130 more villages).

Also can be noted that the numbers of restart for the last weeks have been pretty low with only one this week.

Last comment that I will do is that world 1 is now under 700 players, but this time I donät belive w2 will hit that mark as fast as when the 800 mark was hit. That is becuase the loosing of players is at this time higher in w1 than in w2.


Guess on the date of the last day of this world encouraged :)

Alex
2009-06-21
Length of time since last post: Approximately 8 Day(s)

Players:
Players left: 719 (Down 19)
Players - More than 0 points: 711 (Down 18)
Players - More than 500k points: 527 (Down 14)
Players - More than 1mil points: 472 (Down 2)
Players - More than 5mil points: 209 (Down 1)
Players - More than 10mil points: 75 (Up 6)
Players - More than 15mil points: 26 (Up 2)
Players - More than 20mil points: 6 (Same)

Tribes:
Only includes top 40 members:
Tribes left: 66 (Down 1)
Tribes - More than 0 points: 35 (Same)
Tribes - More than 10mil points: 17 (Down 1)
Tribes - More than 100mil points: 8 (Same)

Total villages in w2: 273.850 (Up 4)

World 1 players left
678 (Down 13)


Guess on the date of the last day of this world encouraged :)

Alex
 
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DeletedUser910

Guest
Just WOW. That's a huge drop of players in just a short time. It's worse then I thought. At this rate we'll clearing be under 600 players by the end of the year, for both worlds. Very sad.
 

tokstolle

Guest
Just WOW. That's a huge drop of players in just a short time. It's worse then I thought. At this rate we'll clearing be under 600 players by the end of the year, for both worlds. Very sad.
Last 8 days the daily decline have been 2,4 player each day for w2 and 1,6 for w1. If we take a longer period of the last 5 weeks (36 instead of 35 days as I was one day late) the decline has been around 1.86 for w2 and 1.91 for w1.
With that rate we will reach 600 for w2 around the july/aug shift or in 41 days.

But then we will have to consider that we are in the start of the summer and summer as always increase the decline. So my guess tha we will drop under 600 in less than one month.
 
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jkurkul

Guest
I agree with tokstolle - summer will see the biggest declines, probably with another spike in late August when school starts up again.
 

ramboas93

Guest
i think at end summer when we will see biggest decline cus even i was barely active during school year(with sports and school just no time to play seriously really) only going on make sure my sitter was ok:p
 

zorwerepanther

Guest
That was when i started attacking you :p
Me with my small account (200K) and you surrounding me everywhere :icon_wink:
I gave you some fun to deal with :icon_razz:

But Beldin quit completely some time ago and just started again and i am allready playing here again for about 2 or 3 months.
Where is beldin? He was awesome :) He came out, right??
 

urk4ever

Guest
Beldin took over a account on the dutch servers and plays there now.
He is in 1 of the toptribes on W1 with some of his old friends and is kicking ass right now. He wanted me to take over a account there to but i am playing 2 worlds allready so don't want to take over another large account.