Countdown w11!

playerhater11234

Guest
The forums are dead because the only thing we want to do is argue and our mods tell us we can't because it's off-topic and then lock the thread... So, what's the point in posting?
 

DeletedUser

Guest
W11 will prob close by end of the year.Forums are already dead:icon_sad:

Bollocks! w10 is 4 times faster than w11, and it's 3 months older than w11, and it's No. 1 Ranked tribe, CTRL, is one of the best in all .net, and it's still going. The chances that w11 will close before w10 are pretty slim (unless y'all just quit - and after 2 1/2 years I really just don't see that happening) :icon_razz:

But, there's still much in the future for w11. After {RASP} is defeated (which I don't think will happen any time soon) all sorts of new possibilities will present themselves :icon_cool:

For example, after the Union has recruited/nobled out the last {RASP} vills ATTERO and ZIP will share a border. Will they get along, or not? Not to mention that there will be - one day - the inevitable showdown between LoD and ATTERO (yeah, I know what you guys say, but after {RASP} is gone, and if ATTERO and LoD can beat ZIP, what else are you going to do?) :icon_twisted:

There's plenty of life in w11 yet :icon_wink:


The forums are dead because the current players in w11 are either incapable of, or simply can't be arsed, to write entertaining P'n'P :icon_cry:
 

DeletedUser

Guest
The forums are dead because the only thing we want to do is argue and our mods tell us we can't because it's off-topic and then lock the thread... So, what's the point in posting?

Hey now hun, don't be a butthead. Y'all were dead long before mods started doing their job.
 

DeletedUser

Guest
19/04/10 @ (15:00 server time) - 6 days since last update

Total people over 0 points: 556 -19 -3.3%
Total over 100,000 points:481 -20
Total over 500,000 points: 412-9
Total over 1,000,000 points: 353 -8
Total over 3,000,000 points: 208 -4
Total over 5,000,000 points: 138 +1
Total over 7,000,000 points: 72 +1
Total over 9,000,000 points: 47 +3
Total over 11,000,000 points: 16 +6
Total over 13,000,000 points: 3 *NEW*

Total tribes over 0 points: 40 -1 -2.4%
Total tribes over 100,000 points: 29 -1
Total tribes over 1,000,000 points: 22 SAME
Total tribes over 10,000,000 points: 13 SAME
Total tribes over 50,000,000 points: 9 SAME
Total tribes over 100,000,000 points: 7 +1
Total tribes over 250,000,000 points: 2 SAME
 

DeletedUser

Guest
26/04/10 @ (00:00 server time) - 7 days since last update

Total people over 0 points: 544 -12 -2.2%
Total over 100,000 points:473 -8
Total over 500,000 points: 406-6
Total over 1,000,000 points: 345 -8
Total over 3,000,000 points: 211 +3
Total over 5,000,000 points: 137 -1
Total over 7,000,000 points: 73 +1
Total over 9,000,000 points: 50 +3
Total over 11,000,000 points: 18 +2
Total over 13,000,000 points: 3 SAME

Total tribes over 0 points: 39 -1 -2.5%
Total tribes over 100,000 points: 28 -1
Total tribes over 1,000,000 points: 23 +1
Total tribes over 10,000,000 points: 13 SAME
Total tribes over 50,000,000 points: 10 +1
Total tribes over 100,000,000 points: 6 -1
Total tribes over 250,000,000 points: 2 SAME
 

DeletedUser

Guest
Doubt it will ever happen, but if it does, it will happen when there are very few people left in the world :icon_cool: Would still be cool though :icon_biggrin:
 

DeletedUser

Guest
Well my last graph was actually accurate to within a couple of days, so I thought that now I have quite a bit of data (And I have nothing else to do with my life this very minute :icon_redface:) I would do a graph to predicate the world at this time next year.

The blue line are the real stats from since I started doing it, October last year until yesterday. The fire line is a prediction based of the rest of the stats, with the end being this date next year. Statisically it's not enough real data to go on for a prediction that far away, but it will give a pretty fair idea :)

predictiontw.jpg
 

Klouwe

Guest
Looks nice :icon_cool:

Which trendline did you use? If it isn't an exponentional one, can you make a pic with the exponentional trendline?

Our world with <200 players will be sexy :icon_cool:
 

DeletedUser

Guest
It is an expontential one, as it has a 99.72% relation to the real data :) So it's pretty accurate, I just don't know for how long...Would need knowledge of what older worlds started doing at this stage :icon_confused:

I agree, less than 200 would be pretty cool...each player would own an average of half a continent (Respectively) :lol:
 

DeletedUser

Guest
we have had 159,000-161,000 barbs for more than a year and a half. I don't know how we are staying in that small of a range except that tw deletes based on a preset limit to barbs.

this would mean the deletion rate is above the limit rate so as soon as the limit rate is caught we would see almost no deletions which is probably less than 6 months from now unless a huge number of large players quit.
 

Klouwe

Guest
It is an expontential one, as it has a 99.72% relation to the real data :) So it's pretty accurate, I just don't know for how long...Would need knowledge of what older worlds started doing at this stage :icon_confused:

About 5 months ago I made a similar prediction in the blog (http://blog.tribalwars.net/index.php/2009/11/18/). I also used an exponential trendline. It had 99.46% correlation. Although this high accuracy, it predicted that we should have NOW about 450 players left in the world. But the REAL amount of current players is 544... :icon_confused:
 

DeletedUser

Guest
to make it more realistic you would need a very small positive number with a one or two higher exponent than what what you are using now to add onto it to explain less willingness to quit something the longer it is cared for.
 

DeletedUser

Guest
There is always always a "+ C" at the end of these types of equations. The problem is we have no idea what this constant is which is why we can only predict and not know how many players will be around when ever.

I believe in another world the top tribe just all decided to delete their accounts one time. That kind of stuff just can't be predicted.
 

playerhater11234

Guest
I don't think regression equations have unknown constants of that nature, however they might have some unknown scalar. You're thinking of an integrated equation which a regression isn't...
 

DeletedUser

Guest
Only 7 people gone this week, pretty small numbers :icon_eek:

01/05/10 @ (14:00 server time) - 6 days since last update

Total people over 0 points: 537 -7 -1.3%
Total over 100,000 points:467 -6
Total over 500,000 points: 398 -8
Total over 1,000,000 points: 340 -5
Total over 3,000,000 points: 212 +1
Total over 5,000,000 points: 138 +1
Total over 7,000,000 points: 78 +5
Total over 9,000,000 points: 51 +1
Total over 11,000,000 points: 20 +2
Total over 13,000,000 points: 5 +2

Total tribes over 0 points: 41 +2 +5.1%
Total tribes over 100,000 points: 29 +1
Total tribes over 1,000,000 points: 24 +1
Total tribes over 10,000,000 points: 15 +2
Total tribes over 50,000,000 points: 10 SAME
Total tribes over 100,000,000 points: 6 SAME
Total tribes over 250,000,000 points: 2 SAME
 
Last edited by a moderator:

DeletedUser

Guest
16/05/10 @ (13:00 server time) - 15 days since last update

Total people over 0 points: 522 -15 -2.8%
Total over 100,000 points:454 -13
Total over 500,000 points: 383 -15
Total over 1,000,000 points: 334 -6
Total over 3,000,000 points: 210 -2
Total over 5,000,000 points: 138 SAME
Total over 7,000,000 points: 82 +4
Total over 9,000,000 points: 53 +2
Total over 11,000,000 points: 25 +5
Total over 13,000,000 points: 6 +1

Total tribes over 0 points: 41 -1 -2.4%
Total tribes over 100,000 points: 30 +1
Total tribes over 1,000,000 points: 21 -3
Total tribes over 10,000,000 points: 13 -2
Total tribes over 50,000,000 points: 9 -1
Total tribes over 100,000,000 points: 5 -1
Total tribes over 250,000,000 points: 3 +1
 

Raveing Elmo

Guest
Losing about 7 and half people a week, or 1 a day,

only 522 days to go :D
 
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