Probability of Noble Train Success

nickjer

Guest
Was bored today so calculated the probabilities of a noble train successfully taking a village (not including special paladin weapons). This takes into account that a noble can only drop the loyalty by a random number between 20-35. Here are the numbers:

Take village with first 3 nobles: 7/512 = 1.367% (so if you sent out 100 noble trains, 1-2 of those trains will make you writhing in pain if that last noble reconquers your village from the 3rd)

Take village with 4 nobles: 55925/65536 = 85.335% (so roughly 85 out of 100 noble trains will be a full success)

Noble train fails: 8715/65536 = 13.298% (and 13 of those 100 attacks will make you hit your head against your desk)

Sidenote: If you do take a village with 3 nobles, then you have a 68.75% chance that your 4th noble will retake it if he has enough support and doesn't die.
 

GooglyEyes123

Guest
Take over an account in W39? Tonnes of players keep quitting - every time I leave I get offered another account lol
 

nickjer

Guest
Already playing an account in W39. Not a very big one since I have been growing from 100 points :)
 

pkiwarrior

Guest
oh hey nickjer :icon_razz:

Just out of curiousity, how did you come up with those numbers? I'm currently taking a probability and stats course at university and I'm wondering how you calculated it.

Its probably beyond what I've learned so far which isn't much :icon_redface:
 

DeletedUser51390

Guest
K9burns has this as his sig aswell..could have looked him up for the numbers
 

9876098

Guest
Wouldnt the probably of taking a village with 4 nobles be 66.66666%?

The 4 nobles can take the following amounts of loyalty:
80 , 81 , 82 , 83 , 84 , 85 , 86 , 87 , 88 , 89 , 90 ...... 135 , 136 , 137 , 138 , 139 , 140.

2/3 of those numbers are at least 100 , so the probability would be 66.66666%?
 

nickjer

Guest
oh hey nickjer :icon_razz:

Just out of curiousity, how did you come up with those numbers? I'm currently taking a probability and stats course at university and I'm wondering how you calculated it.

Its probably beyond what I've learned so far which isn't much :icon_redface:

It would be very difficult to solve it by hand, since you would have to come up with every possible combination. The total number of combinations is 16*16*16*16 = 65536 (since each noble has 16 possible choices from 20-35). It would probably be easier to start with the probability of 3 nobles taking a village, since that has only 16*16*16 = 4096 total combinations.

Since I am lazy, and make mistakes in the math, I wrote a code that went through all 65,536 combinations. And it kept score of each of the 3 possibilities :)

That way there is no error in the counting, since I am not doing it by hand :)

But it would be a good homework exercise to work on. Especially since you now know the answers to check your work.

Wouldnt the probably of taking a village with 4 nobles be 66.66666%?

The 4 nobles can take the following amounts of loyalty:
80 , 81 , 82 , 83 , 84 , 85 , 86 , 87 , 88 , 89 , 90 ...... 135 , 136 , 137 , 138 , 139 , 140.

2/3 of those numbers are at least 100 , so the probability would be 66.66666%?

You can't roll two dice, and say the sum of 7 only has a probability 1/11 (since the sum of two dice can only be 2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12). Go roll two dice and keep track of how many times you roll a total of 7. You will quickly notice it isn't the same amount of times you roll a total of 2.
 

pkiwarrior

Guest
ya... I'm not doing that :lol:
Probability and stats is such a weird branch of math. In university I've taken (and passed) calculus 1, calc 2, calc 3, linear algebra, ordinary differential equations and numerical methods (yes that is one course) and now I'm in probability and stats and it has me baffled. Everything is completely new and all the math I've already learned isn't any help besides basic addition and multiplication.

Its like when you first learn to multiply. Its not like anything else you've ever learned and kinda have to trust that it works while you're learning it (not the greatest analogy but hey).
 

XxLiveNLetDiexX

Guest
ah ok :) i left again - SIKE is as bad as LosT and 82nd :D

That would hurt GE, If I hadn't ditch 82nd myself but not due to me being uncommitted... more of an initially successful attempt to go cold turkey on this game and give it up. BUT Eagle tracked me down and I had been away for over three months. I guess I might as well play one world out.

But you would know that GE.... you have eyes everywhere.... and time to boot. Just look at your forum presence.... I think you need something else to put your time into... take up knitting... I heard it passes the time :icon_biggrin:
 

GooglyEyes123

Guest
That would hurt GE, If I hadn't ditch 82nd myself but not due to me being uncommitted... more of an initially successful attempt to go cold turkey on this game and give it up. BUT Eagle tracked me down and I had been away for over three months. I guess I might as well play one world out.

But you would know that GE.... you have eyes everywhere.... and time to boot. Just look at your forum presence.... I think you need something else to put your time into... take up knitting... I heard it passes the time :icon_biggrin:

Sorry Marc - you know I can't resist a little dig every now and then :)

I do agree about the time though. Maybe I should learn to play the actual game as opposed to spamming every post I can get away with it on :icon_redface:



On topic though, I don't remember having ever taken a village with 3 nobles. Maybe I just bring bad luck :lol:
 

XxLiveNLetDiexX

Guest
Sorry Marc - you know I can't resist a little dig every now and then :)

I do agree about the time though. Maybe I should learn to play the actual game as opposed to spamming every post I can get away with it on :icon_redface:



On topic though, I don't remember having ever taken a village with 3 nobles. Maybe I just bring bad luck :lol:

Firstly, fair enough... I probably deserve it.... yes being able to play may actually force people to listen to you.... probably not still.

Secondly, "On topic though", are you even physically capable of achieving this? and you do realize this is the off topic section.
 

Nine Thou

Guest
What if when you attack with 5 nobles in between the nobles the village gains a point of loyaly back and all your nobles strike for 20 loyalty, whats the chance of that?
 

homcgra1

Non-stop Poster
Reaction score
0
You have a 1 in 16 chance for each noble to hit exactly 20.

So, assuming you have your nobles an hour apart, it would be a 1/1048576 chance.

Which is quite a small number. Someone please correct me if I'm wrong.
 

thecamel

Guest
i was wondering, is the possibility 1/16 for a noble to lower the loyalty but a certain amount? or is it more like a gauss bell curve, so you have different possibilities for different amounts of loyalty taken off?
 

ArmyOfLoners

Guest
I think the better question would be what if the loyalty was at 99 what would the odds be that the 1 loyalty adding during the train keeps you from taking it?
 
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