DeletedUser
Guest
Was bored today so calculated the probabilities of a noble train successfully taking a village (not including special paladin weapons). This takes into account that a noble can only drop the loyalty by a random number between 20-35. Here are the numbers:
Take village with first 3 nobles: 7/512 = 1.367% (so if you sent out 100 noble trains, 1-2 of those trains will make you writhing in pain if that last noble reconquers your village from the 3rd)
Take village with 4 nobles: 55925/65536 = 85.335% (so roughly 85 out of 100 noble trains will be a full success)
Noble train fails: 8715/65536 = 13.298% (and 13 of those 100 attacks will make you hit your head against your desk)
Sidenote: If you do take a village with 3 nobles, then you have a 68.75% chance that your 4th noble will retake it if he has enough support and doesn't die.
Take village with first 3 nobles: 7/512 = 1.367% (so if you sent out 100 noble trains, 1-2 of those trains will make you writhing in pain if that last noble reconquers your village from the 3rd)
Take village with 4 nobles: 55925/65536 = 85.335% (so roughly 85 out of 100 noble trains will be a full success)
Noble train fails: 8715/65536 = 13.298% (and 13 of those 100 attacks will make you hit your head against your desk)
Sidenote: If you do take a village with 3 nobles, then you have a 68.75% chance that your 4th noble will retake it if he has enough support and doesn't die.