The Final Countdown

Discussion in 'World 90' started by Novembre, Feb 19, 2017.

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  1. Novembre

    Novembre Forum Personality 2016

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    With Infamy’s recent war declaration we have now all five top tribes involved in war that will most likely determine the winner of W90. We have two clear opposing camps with Infamy and BiP on one side and TEA, P-W, W A R and Q-EST on the other (I will refer to them as TEA alliance TEAA)


    [​IMG]

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    When comparing and analysing the two sides we need to take into consideration few factors.

    Points: Infamy and BiP have combined 94.5 million against 81.7 million for the TEA alliance including W A R’s academy tribe Q-EST. The 12.7 million point difference is quite significant as it translates to 1586 villages at the current 8033 points per village average between the TEAA.

    Number of members involved: We have currently 153 members in TEAA against the 79 in Infamy and BiP. We can already see that TEAA is far behind in points. TEA leadership needs to work extremely hard to compensate for the point deficit it has and it has to be a task and a half to coordinate 153 accounts from 4 tribes scattered all over the southern map. In that instance Infamy and BiP have much easier job to do. They are two separate tribes with two strong leaderships and they don’t have to make combined OP’s against TEAA unless they want to. TEAA is in much different position. They have to coordinate all 4 tribes for defensive purposes. No wonder Al decided to move to P-W. They needed a person with full understanding of TEA strategy and position to be able to coordinate P-W war efforts. 153 Accounts on the other hand have a lot of room for internalling and moving players on less active accounts. As inactivity can be a big factor in late game it can be a benefit to TEA to have a big roster. I can see TEA continue to Internal P-W players and W A R player replacing those internalled in P-W. It is a good strategy and the faster TEA internals them the better for their tribe.

    Location: Until recently we had Infamy/W A R&TEA front being limited to the few western continents with heavily condensed borders. Since yesterday a large group of remaining FARM members have joined Infamy opening new fronts against TEA and P-W on the south-western rim. I am sure it came to TEA as a surprise and instantly it feels like a thorn in their side.

    BiP/TEA front is a long one going across 5 continents giving both tribes a lot of opportunities to op various players in different locations. BiP is much more clustered focused entirely on TEA and small P-W eastern cluster. TEA and P-W have larger spread and several more isolated clusters being their weak points. Looking at P-W itself they have a lot of players all over the place and unless they are well coordinated with TEA working as one tribe they would be in huge disadvantage.

    Quality of members: TEA has a group of very talented players who since the beginning have been aggressive and performed very well in multiple OPs. That experience will have enormous value for this war. That combined with strong leadership from Trex and Jake are the pillars for the alliance. But that is 45 members what about the other 108? I am sure there are more good players in P-W and W A R family but even if you had 50 less experience ones that can hurt badly if they were targeted by either Infamy or BiP. On the other had Infamy and BiP have kept their roster much lower, being premades they have members who have played together on other worlds. Those 79 accounts are mostly co played, are active and experienced. As I mentioned before both leaderships have much less members to control meaning less strain on the op planners and coordinators but also in my opinion better op execution.

    Also BiP and Infamy have more member stability with only 207 tribal changes against 473 not even counting WAR’s academy. That low rotation adds up to comradeship and the quality of both tribes.

    Believe me or not I tied to be unbiased here. Taking into consideration all above factors BiP and Infamy are in much better position at this point in time. Of course there are many other nuances that should also be considered. Leadership stability and activity of members on both sides will be the major factor for any tribe’s success and only time will tell if one of the tribes will fail in that part.

    The Battleground: We have seen a good coverage and analysis of BiP vs TEA war on externals provided by Nemesis (https://forum.tribalwars.net/index.php?threads/the-resistance.278931/page-3) and the start of the war has been well covered with stats over the weeks. But since Infamy entered the conflict the externals have been rather quiet (apart from usual arguing we do). So I went through some stats and here are my findings.


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    Starting from BiP they have been focusing heavily on OP against .facepalm (29 lost) in the core and TrustMeImLying (24 lost) in the East. In the same time BiP continued to clear –DC- taking 47 villages.

    In response TEA has run a successful counter OP on BiP targeting King Ragnar, King Banana , ODA Junkie and ViolentlyPeaceful taking a total of 54 villages. TEA has also nobled 34 FARM villages and continued fighting ex farm players which have moved to Infamy.


    Infamy focused mostly on WAR in the west taking 44 villages in its first OP. They have skirmished here and there with TEA nobling another 5. WAR in response intensified their barb nobling efforts taking 32 in the last 4 days not taking one village from Infamy. They have managed to take one village from FARM.
    P-W had a similar idea taking 58 barbs but they have at least taken 15 villages from BiP in the East.

    So we have seen a lot of action across the battlefield. With recent recruitment of FARM members by Infamy we will see more TEA/Infamy war stats in coming weeks. WAR will most likely be losing more villages and I don’t think TEA can do much about it. BiP and TEA will continue with weekly OP’s and slowly we will have a clearer picture of where the war is heading.


    I wish both sides all the best. It has been a very entertaining world so far and this war is like a cherry on the cake. I hope no tribe will disband due to internal issues and we will have a long and clear war for months to come.
     
    Last edited: Feb 19, 2017
  2. Mithrae

    Mithrae Still Going Strong

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    Informative and impressively objective as always.

    Really it seems to me that most of the arguments I've seen (and done my ethical best to actively encourage and participate in) are over how things came to be this way - or tangentially, why the 'stats' are as they are, because of how things came to be this way :p But all that aside, for now at least it's a straight-up 45/55 fight (by village numbers) or maybe 40/60 or 35/65 factoring in fronts, player counts and so on. Infamy's declaration was not unexpected and not unfair, so wrangling over the length of each tribe's stats aside, it really is a somewhat fair fight which hopefully we can all somewhat enjoy whatever the outcome :cool:
     
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  3. I like your post, one thing that I have noticed about this war which is extremely disappointing from the statistics is the participation levels. I currently play in a 1.0 speed world and we started a war at a similar size to when BiP/TEA started their war. The major advantage a 2.0 speed world has over a 1.0 speed world in a mid-lategame war is troop rebuild times and I do feel that neither tribe is really utilising their particular side (though I cannot say for Infamy yet since it is early on) to its fullest potential.

    Probably the most recognised example of the strength of troop rebuild is packet support. Lets say a player has 10 D villages and defends against a few nukes using 1 D village worth of troops. You can simulate the difference between defending with the D coming from 1 village versus 10 villages. Lets say you lose 20000 villagers worth of defence to your attack, how many defensive troops have you had from when the attack hits over the next 24?

    You start off with 20000 villagers worth of defence (I'm just rounding this) per D village, of which you have 10 for a total of 200000 villagers worth of defence. Lets say the build time for a D village takes a week assuming constant queues, then you are recovering 1/7 of a Defence over a day or 2857 villagers worth of defence.

    Defending with one village:

    Total villagers over 24 hours = 200000 + 2857 = 202857

    Defending with packet support:

    Total villagers over 24 hours = 200000 + (2857*10) = 228570 (Actual result 220000)

    A note about the packet support calculation, it is actually incorrect, since the max amount of troops that can be rebuilt is 20000 villagers, so you would be working with 11DVs instead of 10DVs. Assuming you lost more defence, you could get a maximum of 228570 units to work with over the time period. Meanwhile just defending with a complete DV is going to net you the same results if you wait six more days.

    Offence actually works pretty similar to Defence in this aspect, though packet support is where it is best utilised. For Offence, take a nuking Op from a player with 10 Offence villages who loses them all to stacks versus someone who doesn't send anything. Lets say the rebuild time is 5 days and the travel time is a day. I'll try not to go into specific calculations here as when I wrote the above about Defence, I didn't realise I was just pleasuring myself and probably boring everyone else.

    Over a period of a week, your non-participant has a total of 10Os to work with. Your participant, whose O all died, has 20Os to work with as they have rebuilt by the end of the week and he could send the Os again out to the enemy to land on the last day.

    _____________________________________________________________________________

    I preface what I am about to say with the above as I think it is important for people to understand rebuild times and the importance of actually using your nukes and defence beyond it pressuring the enemy. To put it in the simplest terms, people who use their troops actually have more troops to work with than those that don't, assuming the same size and the difference is very large over the scale of a month. TEA/BiP for example could have landed three full tribal Ops on each other most likely during the month of war. I look at the stats though and only 38 people have an ODA over 1 million in the war, or killing around 12.5Ds over a 1 month period. Only 20 people have over 2 million ODA or 25Ds killed, which is especially worrying for TEA/P-W since only 6 of their players make that requirement.

    On a macro level, I am concerned that there is only 1 day from TEA and 4 days from BiP where they have killed more than 50DVs in a day. With BiP it would probably be acceptable if the peaks themselves were higher, but only twice have they killed more than 100DVs in a day. We are talking tribes here that have thousands of nukes at their disposal. You'd expect a 40 million ODA rise if BiP or TEA was cycling even 1000 Offensive villages every week, which for 6000/7500 village sides is very feasible and arguably it should be double that or more. Last week BiP got just over halfway to that 40 million ODA mark, TEA have never even gotten close.

    To me, this war seems quite unstructured and weakly enforced as a priority at the leadership level. This is especially the case with TEA, when given the option to noble other targets instead of BiP, their primary threat, they have chosen to do so. We aren't even talking about FARM here, we are talking Kraken, -DC- and other irrelevant tribes that have never given TEA any kickback ever. I'm sure BiP would also do this but they have less of a choice when it comes to expansion asides from nobling barbarians which they could do.

    Having troops constantly cycling is not always good, sometimes it can leave temporary weaknesses that can be exploited in the front which is why I would not ask for a 100% cycling, but I'd like to see more troops leaving their villages and being used by both sides, especially offensively. If this means assigning out targets if it cannot be done organically (ie. 99% of the time), then so be it rather than having a few players pick up the slack or people going at their own pace. For TEA especially, going at your own pace is probably not enough. I think that could really do wonders for either side in this war as it adds more benefits than the numbers themselves intangibly.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 19, 2017
  4. Seven Devils

    Seven Devils Non-stop Poster

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    This is the first midgame world we are playing with the Watchtower. And wars in contrary to common belief, are not fought the same way. And not to forget, the 10 paladins..

    Due to defending being so ridiculously easy, and attacking being more timeconsuming for leadership and players alike. You can expect the wars and stats to look different than say the other world you mentioned.
     
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  5. That is true to an extent in terms that it is far easier to dodge and defend than it already was. I've always thought TW was heavily defensive favoured, the watchtower just allows mediocre players to make some of the plays and have the information that the best defenders had pre-watchtower. The 10 paladins can be an issue, assuming all are used defensively, they weren't quite the issue that bonfires were, especially when you could get 200 point players to give you a bonfire. There have been other worlds with similar defensive buffs such as churches, fake limits, the general point of the post still applies in my opinion.

    Nuking frontline stacks is pretty much the same though no matter the changes. You can log in once every two days, send out all your nukes on a script which takes less than 5 minutes to the frontline and you would have more impact in the war than the majority of combatants.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 19, 2017
  6. Impossible Dream

    Impossible Dream Non-stop Poster

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    Captain Obvious over here..

    ~Patrick
     
  7. I was going for some sort of comparison there, but I tend to just ramble in my posts and go on various tangents.
     
  8. Balian in Ibelin

    Balian in Ibelin Still Going Strong

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    Nest , your are Bias on top of that you talk behind players back when acting like your their friend . Now let me tell you why your bias :

    You been playing this game long enough to know whether a tribe is good or not ,you know all the research, yet you try to add in War and family like a whip cream and cherry on top on your behalf to make it look like odds are against you in the number of members against you , when you know dam right well 10 of their players don't account for 1 of 95 percent of the players in Bip or Infamy , so I don't even know why you waste your time including them .

    http://www.twstats.com/en90/index.php?page=tribe&mode=conquers&id=1840&type=lose&pn=-1

    Enough said , It's Bip and Infamy against TEA and PW the odds are against us period .

    Besides that , like I said in the beginning , Infamy hasn't done Jack Crap this whole world most of the villas you have were mostly all freebies etc .

    And if TEA should fall I hope Bip kicks your Butts and if they need help I'll be glad to join them because Infamy dosen't deserve the glory of world 90 .
     
  9. Novembre

    Novembre Forum Personality 2016

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    Balian read it again. Did I once said odds are against us? I added WAR and their academy to the stats as I saw links between TEA P-W recruitment of W A R members. It would be surprising if TEA leadership didn't want to have W A R on their side. If what you're saying is true your odds for winning are even less.

    I know you don't like me Balian but it doesn't change the fact that my post isn't bias. And whatever tribe wins at the end it will be strive worthy of winning.
     
    Last edited: Feb 20, 2017
  10. Michael Corleone.

    Michael Corleone. Part of the Furniture

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    How To Derail a Thread: Balian Edition Volume 15

    Good work as always Nest
     
  11. Adrift

    Adrift Member

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    I think with the right direction, P-W can become nearly as big value on this side as Infamy. Player skill isn't everything, leadership and tribal atmosphere is important. P-W also has had players in the past who have become mainstay in TEA, it is not as if there is zero skill here.

    W A R should be doing a lot better versus Infamy than they are, but there are various reasons why they aren't.

    I don't think you will see many recruits from W A R due to mindset differences, I think I will be one of the only ones and I was lucky to get into P-W as it is.
     
  12. Balian in Ibelin

    Balian in Ibelin Still Going Strong

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    You said we have 153 members in TEA , you don't even remember what you wrote :

    [​IMG]

    I know what I read and I know what you were insinuating.
     
  13. vickmiller

    vickmiller Member

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    Yeah, we're a tribe of barely active members. Brainless leadership and what we have, we haven't really earned. No glory for us mate as we are just a bunch of bastards.

    (I might be only slightly gayer than you)
     
  14. Novembre

    Novembre Forum Personality 2016

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    Balian how could you have 153 members if tribal limit is 45? I wrote TEAA referring to the TEA alliance. That's why I asked you to read it again.
     
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  15. Balian in Ibelin

    Balian in Ibelin Still Going Strong

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    Forget it Nest , I can see I'm talking to a box of rocks .
     
  16. jorge1332

    jorge1332 Non-stop Poster

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    Obviously you missed this part Balian.
     
  17. vickmiller

    vickmiller Member

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    Really Nest? Pushed out or dropped out. Looks like he jumped ship, let someone else take the loss as leader. He might get to pp farm a bit.

    (I'm way gayer than you)
     
  18. Michael Corleone.

    Michael Corleone. Part of the Furniture

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    You talking to yourself in the mirror?

    Derailing a nice thread, we cannot have nice things.
     
  19. Adrift

    Adrift Member

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    I do think you understate how disadvantaged TEA Alliance is as W A R/Q-EST raise numbers but are worth far less than appears on paper, but your post itself is relatively objective as far as I can see.

    Of course we want W A R on our side, every little helps. At the moment and from my knowledge from being a member of W A R and knowing the internal policies and member quality, I doubt they will offer much resistance. I have fought against L0v3r5, mezonis war-peace and purely forgotten, the main frontliners of that front when I was in Wicked. Not to say they are perfect player, I am not afraid of them. One of those player in my opinion is more valuable than the entirety of Q-EST, of similar value to the whole of W A R.

    PinkVendeta and I will disagree to the end of time on how to properly play the game, I think it really cost the tribe heavily and lower the quality (this my personal opinion, not that of P-W) and I hope some losses on their part will shock the system for them and change W A R for the better.
     
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  20. jorge1332

    jorge1332 Non-stop Poster

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