TEA vs BiP - An analysis
I was a little bored, so I decided to talk a bit about TEA vs. BiP from a purely theoretical perspective to give an idea of what we might expect from the conflict. I'll try being as impartial as possible here and explore the conflict from a variety of angles.
The Statistics
This section covers all the major tribal level statistics. Most of these are from TWstats though I have calculated a few of the ones which TWstats reports inaccurately:
To be honest, the two top tribes are superficially similar on the macro level. Both tribes have similar total size, similar number of members and therefore similar average size. I’d also say that the ODA/ODD indicate a roughly equal amount of offensive presence and defensive pressure withstood over the course of the world. Yes TEA’s is higher, but taking into account the recent 2Hard merger, BiP has probably faced similar trials up until now and perhaps more given the size disparity.
The first striking difference comes at the percentage of barbarians the two tribes noble. Looking at the statistics, you can clearly see the majority of those BiP nobles taking place between 14th and 27th December throughout what I suppose was the 2Hard war. It does indicate there was some difficulty for BiP during that fight in terms of growth. How you perceive that depends on how you assess their opponent’s caliber, but regardless an interesting tidbit.
The Battlefield
The best way to determine who is going to do well in fights is to simply just have a look at the map.
I’m going to leave Infamy out of this for now, but obviously they are a big factor hanging in that black space to the north.
Starting with the very obvious, there are basically three theatres of war, two major ones and a minor one with a potential to become major. I’ve separated them out on the map below:
Essentially, most of the fighting is probably going to, at least in the short term take place in theatres 1 and 2 when it concerns actual TEA players at the time of war (I understand that there is one ex-TEA member being munched). TEA will probably look at either surrounding and isolating or focusing down that central cluster. BiP will most likely look at consolidating the space between the main tribe and the cluster, though there is also the option of closing the gap between TEA and BiP in theatre 3.
On the very macro level, who has the advantage depends on what you value. TEA probably has more villages on the front, but conversely means they have more to protect and to be exploited. The interesting part of the BiP front is that jutted out cluster. A lot on how BiP does in the war depends on the performance of that cluster in the short term and whether BiP can pull off better surrounds than TEA. BiP does have the option on the macro level on pivoting between theatre 1 and 2 as a mixup in extended Ops. Theatre 3, at least in the short term I expect to be quite boring and go relatively even assuming no major mistakes. The front is not large enough for either side to really gain much traction yet. If the gap is closed between TEA and BiP in K55, then it could start heating up.
Micro visualization of major theatres of war
TEA’s Side
When it comes to the major theatre of war, there are essentially twelve frontline players who will be putting in the lions share of the work from TEA’s side. When looking at the front offensively, TEA’s major areas where they should look to put on pressure is in the very south K45/55 as well as K44 and North K54. Most likely the latter is probably the best bet for TEA since that’s where they have the highest concentration of players (I say all the above in terms of what is optimal, there is an element of mind games that come into war). Defensively, HardNutz and King Silva are very likely to be focused down, especially King Silva. Am somewhat surprised that there hasn’t been more of an effort to share the burden through village swaps to create an offensive bunker rather than having a few vulnerable players. The front on the TEA/Infamy front is a lot better in that respect.
Those two do instantly come to mind, but Good Game? looks like another possibility for a BiP target. Five players essentially hold the vast majority of the front so a lot of TEA’s strategy will come down to how individual players perform in terms of pressure in order to prevent a situation where BiP can stack 60-100 or so villages and wall. If it comes to bunkering down, a good way to increase TEA players on the front would be to attack Kraken which should probably be easy takes.
BiP’s Side
BiP have slightly more players on the front with fifteen major players and perhaps three or four minor players, which I’d put three to four more than TEA overall. Offensively from this perspective, King Silva looks like the obvious target to gangbang. It is possible for them to attack HardNutz and no doubt they will given the probable beef with 2Hard and HardNutz, but it is slightly more difficult logistically assuming he is competent. Defensively, LawandOrder1, F.K.A and Finewe are probably the most vulnerable players. That being said, depending on the abilities of HardNutz, King Banana may be one to look out for. Villages taken off a leader are a multitude more valuable than those taken off a member.
The general cluster looks relatively solid and BiP seems less reliant on individual play to succeed. That said, their position does rely somewhat on no collapses. Lost One, Lee Hughes or Tavomama69 for example collapsing under pressure would be more disastrous for BiP since it would snowball into far more pressure and vulnerability and cause a collapse in the entire cluster. That could be something that TEA could look towards. BiP does have other options than these two players offensively at least when it comes to nobling on the local level in central K54 for example.
Visualisation of the Eastern front
I’ve made a more messy visualization by putting on both sides here just to save some time. Not much to really be said about this front other than it needs a bit more developing before it becomes a major theatre of war.
There is one interesting part about this front, which is the existence of P-W who are aligned with TEA. It opens up more possibilities for TEA, but the front itself still needs 2-3 weeks of work before it becomes really hostile. For the most part, the moment, the two major players that are vulnerable are Sandover from BiP and Omg a Reddy from TEA assuming no major inactive players etc.
The real question is what is the best way to open the front and who benefits. This to me really depends on where the front is opened up. I think BiP could do very well to close the gap in K55, though it would take a lot of work.
Other Factors
I’ve kind of left out the Elephant in the room, Infamy. How do they fit into this? Needless to say, they have large fronts with both tribes and enough mass to become a kind of deal breaker in the war. The question then is who has the best diplomacy in that case. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for Infamy to go either way. Currently I think they can afford to let Tea/BiP fight on their own and increase the war weariness of whatever enemy they choose.
My personal opinion? I’d lean towards TEA getting gangbanged. Some people just have the curse of being born and TEA is one of those tribes. Reputation is a very fickle thing. What does this mean for the battlefield? Another front to consider, troops probably need holding back in certain cases and making sure your tribe is ready for the worst case scenario.