W39 Stats That Matter (And Some That Don't)

statsmaster

Guest
Hey everyone, with two new worlds coming out soon and with myself not being able to take much of a part in them, with RL coming into play and reducing my activity, I have decided to calculate some statistics about tribal wars. I will also be calculating ODA to points and members ratios for tribes on this world, and I'll try to calculate any stats that you ask for, just either post in this topic or message me in these forums (I will be editing this post, so you might like to check it every time you look at the topic).

I will also share what formulas I used if you cannot work it out (but I am using a non-standard spreadsheet, OpenOffice Calc, so they will be a little different) and I may send you the documents (I don't think Microsoft like OpenOffice making free spreadsheet software so Excel probably cannot read OpenOffice documents, however you can download OpenOffice for free off the internet), but I might not have enough time, so don't bet on it.

Non World 39 Specific

The first thing I have calculated is the chance of noble trains taking a village with 3 or 4 nobles hitting, to show what the theoretical probability (in theory, it depends on how the game generates the loyalty taken down by noblemen) is of getting a village with 3 nobles in a train, and also the probability of overnobling yourself with 4 or 5 noble trains.

The theoretical probability of you taking a village if you send 4 nobles at it is approximately 86.6% (if you ask I'll give any statistic to anything up to 15 decimal places), the probability of taking a village if you send 3 nobles is around 1.34% and the probability of overnobling yourself when sending 4 nobles is around 0.77%, given that there is a 2/3 chance of taking a village that has just been nobled with another nobleman, as the loyalty is immediately reset to 25 after a village has been taken.

Given that the probability of taking a village if you send 5 nobles is 100%, as the minimum loyalty taken down by one nobleman is 20%, you have to take the village. This means that the probability of overnobling yourself after sending 5 noblemen is 57.8%.

Basically, it's like this:

Nobles Sent|Chance of taking the village | Chance of overnobling
3|1.34%|0%
4|86.6%|0.77%
5|100%|57.8%
Click to expand...

World 39 Specific

When the world starts, I will calculate (and graph some of) these:

Player Stats
Points divided by ODA
Points divided by (0.75*ODA + 0.25*ODD)

Tribal Stats
Points divided by ODA divided by members
Points divided by (0.75*ODA + 0.25*ODD) divided by members

Thanks
To Tru Dread, for his idea.

This is a work in progress.
 
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statsmaster

Guest
As Nithgor has kindly agreed to unlocking this topic, does anyone have any ideas for any statistics etc I can calculate?
 

DeletedUser

Guest
Sure. What I'd like to see is a probability chart of size of army taking the following into consideration:

Rate of growth
Probable buildings built
Probable daily online time figured by using times at which buildings are created and probable types of said buildings
Number of easy farms in area, both barbs and non-growing ones, this should be adjusted by the number of neighbors farming the same villages
Farm values should also be adjusted for probable building levels

Adjustments for the following should be included:
Increase in both ODA and ODD taken into account the rise of both in neighbors adjusted for size and rate of growth of said neighbors
Potential for tribal support for both player and potential targets

I know I'm missing something, I'll get back to on the rest.
 

DeletedUser

Guest
I always liked this:

(Points + .75*ODA + .25*ODD) / (# members) as a power ranking per tribe.
 

statsmaster

Guest
Erm, well, most of those are about player psychology and guesswork, and not a lot of actual statistics involved. I can guess, but it'd take a very long time to even work out how to put all of those into formulae, let alone get coherent answers.

And a lot of those are impossible. Probability of tribal support? That's just how good your tribe is, and how selfless they are. And the online times can be found by looking at them on tribalwarsmap every six hours or so, and putting it on the 'growth' option. Good ideas, but maybe a little off the mark of what I was thinking of. Thanks anyway.
 

DeletedUser

Guest
lol, I guess you missed that I was being facetious.

Though none of those parts are impossible, it would just take far more work then the results would merit.

We all do this kind of Probability in our head while planning attacks and future growth, but to different degrees. Someone with far more time then I could put together a fairly accurate formula, but it would be very complicated.

As I mentioned, the overall idea is to get "a probability chart of size of army", with all those parts taken into account and I'm sure more would arise in the process.
 

statsmaster

Guest
Free-eek said:
lol, I guess you missed that I was being facetious.
Click to expand...
I was unsure, I have never seen any of your posts before, so I thought it best to err on the safe side.

Free-eek said:
Though none of those parts are impossible, it would just take far more work then the results would merit.

We all do this kind of Probability in our head while planning attacks and future growth, but to different degrees. Someone with far more time then I could put together a fairly accurate formula, but it would be very complicated.
Click to expand...
Very true, although in rare cases it is unneeded. I knew of someone who had 500 axemen within about 4 days at the start of world 37. No one had the kind of defense needed to defend against that, he just attacked everyone within reach.

Free-eek said:
As I mentioned, the overall idea is to get "a probability chart of size of army", with all those parts taken into account and I'm sure more would arise in the process.
Click to expand...
Yes, true, but it would be a heap of guesswork.

Have you ever read the 'Foundation' SciFi series by Asimov? It had something called 'psychoanalysis', where you could accurately predict a group of people's responses, however the equations broke down as the number of people grew less. A bit of an analogy to Quantum and Newtonian Physics, but it is correct in theory. It is pretty much impossible to predict one person's actions, as opposed to a large group's, where the more extreme reactions are mitigated by more moderate people.

Sorry, a bit of a political monologue, but you get my drift (I hope). It is practically impossible to predict a single person's actions, especially when they all have different preferences.
 

DeletedUser

Guest
statsmaster said:
...Have you ever read the 'Foundation' SciFi series by Asimov? It had something called 'psychoanalysis' ...
Click to expand...

Ah - Hari Seldon, Genius :)

But Free-eek actually opens a very valid and fresh avenue for your statistical analysis. Although deliberately obtuse requests in this instance I am sure there will be many less complicated queries that could be done - think about it, you might find something new and altogether worthwhile :)
 

DeletedUser

Guest
statsmaster said:
Have you ever read the 'Foundation' SciFi series by Asimov? It had something called 'psychoanalysis', where you could accurately predict a group of people's responses, however the equations broke down as the number of people grew less. A bit of an analogy to Quantum and Newtonian Physics, but it is correct in theory. It is pretty much impossible to predict one person's actions, as opposed to a large group's, where the more extreme reactions are mitigated by more moderate people.

Sorry, a bit of a political monologue, but you get my drift (I hope). It is practically impossible to predict a single person's actions, especially when they all have different preferences.
Click to expand...

Very true, and the added issue of growth would add to the inaccuracy produced by the depletion of test subjects (players). It would be much easier in the beginning to create an accurate formula, although it would be quite complicated. As time went on the number of variables would increase while the pool of information would decrease causing the formula to become more and more inaccurate. It could be used in early game, but useless in mid to late game.

As far as predicting one person's actions, it's not what I asked for anyways, since I knew that would be impossible. Though many will be on the average, and with other factors included to determine aggressive patterns, online patterns and such, and thus more accurate approximations of the different types of troops, this would be useful as no more then a guide to the probable. Anyone wishing to actually use it for an in game advantage would find that while it would be helpful in most situations it could be lethal if taken as gospel.

As for 'Foundation', that sounds like something I would be interested in reading. And it's a beautiful analogy to the current conversation.
 

statsmaster

Guest
Free-eek said:
Very true, and the added issue of growth would add to the inaccuracy produced by the depletion of test subjects (players). It would be much easier in the beginning to create an accurate formula, although it would be quite complicated. As time went on the number of variables would increase while the pool of information would decrease causing the formula to become more and more inaccurate. It could be used in early game, but useless in mid to late game.
Click to expand...

Absolutely correct.

Free-eek said:
As far as predicting one person's actions, it's not what I asked for anyways, since I knew that would be impossible. Though many will be on the average, and with other factors included to determine aggressive patterns, online patterns and such, and thus more accurate approximations of the different types of troops, this would be useful as no more then a guide to the probable. Anyone wishing to actually use it for an in game advantage would find that while it would be helpful in most situations it could be lethal if taken as gospel.
Click to expand...
True, I was just thinking about the different ways people start up worlds, it's definitely personal preference. Apologies, I wasn't trying to say that you did ask for it, it was just an interesting aside to the discussion. Of course it's pretty much impossible, although in certain cases:

You attack Player A's only village
Their defense is all cleared, but their offense is all out farming.
They attack back, with a hate mail accompanying the troops.
Click to expand...

That's pretty much it at the start of a world. But equations to determine that will be almost impossible.

Free-eek said:
As for 'Foundation', that sounds like something I would be interested in reading. And it's a beautiful analogy to the current conversation.
Click to expand...
Thanks :)

Don't you just love having long interesting convos with some random? Although I know you by reputation, free-eekism is famous.
 

DeletedUser

Guest
statsmaster said:
True, I was just thinking about the different ways people start up worlds, it's definitely personal preference. Apologies, I wasn't trying to say that you did ask for it, it was just an interesting aside to the discussion. Of course it's pretty much impossible, although in certain cases:

That's pretty much it at the start of a world. But equations to determine that will be almost impossible.
Click to expand...

Almost impossible, yet not. While there are many ways to start a world it is limited and by using the things we can know about them and their area we can make some pretty accurate assumptions to the particular methods they are most likely using. A few extreme exceptions will, of course, fall outside of the scope of possibility here, but the majority will fall right into the equation.

If you know all the things I mentioned in the first post, most of which would have to be derived from quite complicated formulas themselves, predicting the most likely start method would be quite easy, although not 100% accurate (see extreme exceptions). And even deviations from common start methods would be exposed with the finer points of the data you can find. From that point actual numbers may never be achieved but very close approximations would be the result.

statsmaster said:
Don't you just love having long interesting convos with some random? Although I know you by reputation, free-eekism is famous.
Click to expand...

The forums are at lest half the fun of this game. :icon_biggrin::icon_biggrin:

Free-eekism, or the creation of it, was probably the most fun I've had in this game. It was insainly fun and funny, I never dreamed it would blossom into what it became. It all started from a 3AM SPAM feast fueled by too much redbull and cheetos, now it has it's own wiki entry. :lol::lol:

It's just a shame the original thread got deleted for the spam it was, truly some of my best posts ever and only a handful of players got to see it, it was gone by morning. :icon_cry::icon_cry:

What started as pure fun for fun's sake ended in a religion, and somewhat inside joke few completely understood, which in itself was still a lot of fun.
 

statsmaster

Guest
So what exactly is free-eekism? Is it just randomly playing tribeless, or do you have to do something else?
 

DeletedUser

Guest
Not sure who wrote the wiki but here it is:

Free-eekism

Welcome to Free-eekism, one of the first TW religion, made for TW.

The premise of Free-eekism is to eliminate the family scum element that constantly defiles an other wise great game. Family tribes are the scum of TW, they infect all they touch and reduce the enjoyment factor for not only their members but also everyone in the game.

We are bonded with the sole purpose of eliminating this scum by any means possible, there are no limits to to the levels you can take.

Join our quest to rid TW of this disease call "the family"

Commandments:

Thou shalt spread the word or Free-eek, we must speak out against these families at every opportunity.

Thou shalt attack every member of a family tribe with in your 13x13.

Thou shalt only join a family if your intentions are to gain their trust, get set as duke then disband them.

Thou shalt use well coordinated attacks with other noble warriors to confuse these cowards.

When you are choosing noble targets always try to eliminate one of their numbers.

Thou shalt relieve this horrors of their excess resources often.

Thou shalt never never never allow your tribe to be become allies with these dark forces.

Thou shalt taunt and ridicule all members of these families when they cry about your attacks.

Thou shalt mislead them and even on occasion lie to them to gain their trust only to abuse it later.

Thou shalt spam spam spam and spam some more.


So speaketh Free-eek 1st priest of the almighty church of Free-eekism

Harlos 2nd priest of the church of Free-eekism
 

statsmaster

Guest
Wowee, nice... back on topic:

Ermm, kind of on topic: do you think I should graph the tribes and players' rank, or just put them in a table?
 
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