1. I doubt an alliance would be possible with either tribe. Afterall why would either Active or XVI give up the option of themselves nobling into K43. If they have light blue villages there preventing themselves from nobling into K43 they (being either XVI or Active) would be handing the advantage to the other tribe as they would be able to begin nobling into k43. I can't see it as being particularly beneficial for either XVI or Active to ally with you so I would consider this as unlikely.
However if either wishes to buy time and use you guys as a buffer to the other then I can see XVI or Active approaching you guys for diplomacy. In either case though I can only see you guys getting used.
In your position I would be trying to merge into Active. As they have the space in their tribe and the need to expand into other continents. Because lets face it XVI does not need to act to secure more continents at this immediate stage. So I don't see how recruiting you guys is as beneficial for them as it is for Active.
2. Can't see there being too many positive outcomes for you guys if a conflict eventuates and you are stuck in the middle.
3. Send a noble train to the other side of the world. Or merge into one of the two tribes.
Bit morbid, sorry. One way or another I can see you guys copping it like Poland in WW2. Best of luck