I know that I am pretty much a non event on this world, and this war does not involve me, but I want to give my opinion in any case.
My breakdown so far with the three main tribes involved here is that, looking at twstats only.
Yay: I think their stats make them seem like they are in a better position than they really are, 90% of their players are growing, but they are bleeding villages in one account that soon broke, and are going to start bleeding on another one soon methinks. I think YAY's existence is only delaying the real war from happening, and that is the one between growth and soon, the reason I am saying this is because there are a lot of players who have done very little in the war with soon.
Growth: They have done the best in this world so far, good recruitment early on put them in the position they are in now, they don't have a few players carrying the rest, most of their members are active, and attacking. Individually only a small amount of them stand out as amazing players, but as a unit they are impressive, if they keep up that activity they will be really hard to beat. That being said though, because of their early success they have not really been tested defensively, will be interesting to see how they hold up when soon turns their attention on them. If growth defends well, and maintain their activity they will go to the end, and maybe win this world.
Soon: They have made some bad recruitment choices, and are going to pay for that, unless they can get people into some of those dead and dying accounts, or they can eat them. All tribes have their defensive and offensive players, they need there defensive semi active guys to eat those accounts, to send troops to the front while the rest fight. Even with those bad accounts in the tribe, these guys are killing troops.....allot of troops, from what I can tell they are killing Growths nukes while defending, and killing yay's troops offensively, people don't seem to recognize that killing Valmer is only the beginning. Soon are really good at killing accounts, they are deadly, but also in trouble, if they can tidy up their internal issues, they can win this world.