Another Inactivity Thread

[DeletedUser]

There doesn't seem to much happening so I figured I'd make some shiny graphs and then post my opinion about them. Life's boring in my house :icon_razz:

The graphs are all going to be in spoilers because I believe they are too big and I'd be breaking the rules if I were to post them. That and I was struggling to read what each one said.

Ok, so what I've done is the following. Using http://en16.tribalwarsmap.com/tribehistory? (thanks to Jakee) I've looked at the activity for each tribe and if a member has not grown more than 500 points in the last week, I have flagged them as black on the graph.

However, I'm going to just throw the draw backs out there before this gets going properly.

1. The theory that I used presumes that any player going down in points is being internally nobled. However this isn't going to be accurate in all cases as there's a war going on down south :icon_cry:
   
2. Another flaw is that not every player needs to grow to be active. I'll use myself as an example here, I am flagged black whereas I know I am active. I know the same is for many other players as well.
   
3. Thirdly, I made these graphs and therefore there are most likely several mistakes :icon_eek:

Yh, I've already found some errors, so take them on face value, not accuracy.

Ok, now for the graphs, the legend goes Left to right:

Bang! [SPOIL]

[/SPOIL]

Plight [SPOIL]

[/SPOIL]

C² [SPOIL]

[/SPOIL]

LSHRV [SPOIL]

[/SPOIL]

The next graph shows the percentage of members that are inactive.
[Spoil]

[/spoil]

And finaly, a graph showing points.
[SPOIL]

[/SPOIL]

Erm, hopefully something constructive can come out of this?

 

[DeletedUser]

good work truscott! though like you said those that are black could well be active (and in fact possibly more active than some of the others) so it cant really be too accurate.

what does each of the colours mean though? or did i miss out something when i read your post lol?

 

[DeletedUser]

pretty interesting graphs. It is in fact pretty hard to really evaluate the inactivity of the world and each tribe and these can be really useful showing wich member seems by point increasing active or not. Of course there is many ways like sittings, lack of targets\res\nukes to make these stats not accurate but I find those pretty interesting anyway.

And, the biggest accounts are not necessarily the most active ones even if we could beleive that active= more growth= biggest accounts. People from all account sizes seems to go inactive. It would be interesting to know how much percentage for each million points by example are actually inactive or not.

 

[DeletedUser]

Nice work mate and very good graphs.

Whilst it's not completely accurate, I'd say that generally this is all fairly accurate of how active each tribe is. I'd also like to add that Plight and BANG are probably the least active down to them not fighting wars right now. When/if that changes, I'm sure these graphs will change over time and show a different story.

 

[DeletedUser]

wonderful... all we needed was someone to point out flaws..

 

[jakeeboy]

Your Welcome.

 

[DeletedUser]

Really nice Pack of info Truss. I agree some "inactives" are not really inactives.

At least i saw several C² marked as inactives that i know they are not inactives and most tribes will have also some examples.

I really enjoyed reading the info. Mabye adding more coulors to the % active and inactive so its not so hard to read the first time.. but i really liked it.

 

[DeletedUser]

make a pie chart next time =D

 

[MichielK]

Very good work, truscott! :icon_biggrin:

I see some people jumped immediately to (constructive) criticism, but I assure you that it's very very difficult to do better than what truscott did here. Besides, most of the criticism is not free of criticism itself. For example:

• "My tribemate is marked as inactive, but he IS active" - How active can he be if he doesn't take villages or upgrade buildings?
• "Not everyone who drops in points is being nobled internally" - True, but does their 'activity' really help you forward if they consistently lose villages?
• "Tribes in a war will be more active" - This is a myth. While active players become more active during a war, there is no evidence of a relationship between war and activity.

One thing to keep in mind is that this is a snapshot in time, and as a result drawing many conclusions is going to be difficult if not impossible. I've been running similar activity analyses internally in C² for well over a year, and one of the things I've learned is that it's not so much the level that's important, but the changes. Certain tribes have a "natural" low or high level of activity, and this in itself is not a recipe for disaster or success. It's when tribes rise above or drop below their long-term average that a lot of information becomes available.

For example, HRV is a traditional low-activity tribe, and this never really hurt them in the past. However, their activity in the last 6 months shows a sawtooth-shape; periods of rapid increases, followed by a gradual decline. This tells us when new groups of players are recruited into existing accounts, and gives an indication of what happens to them. Where their activity numbers are on a given day has little importance; more important is that the peaks are getting gradually lower, and the drops gradually deeper.

(This is btw no knock on HRV, they're simply the tribe I've looked at most in the past 6 months for obvious reasons :icon_wink

 

[DeletedUser]

make a pie chart next time =D

And this is why the nuke that is coming at my newly internally nobled village, shall die :icon_biggrin:

I lubs you really, but yesh, that nuke is as good as gone >.>

Very good work, truscott! :icon_biggrin:

You just made me evening :icon_razz:

what does each of the colours mean though? or did i miss out something when i read your post lol?

You most likely didn't miss anything. I'm guessing your referring to the first set of tribal graphs. The answer is simply that as far as I can tell, excel randomly assigns colours to every different series unless I manually change them. It has a set of pre-made colours and slowly lowers the shade/tone of them I believe.

I'd also like to add that Plight and BANG are probably the least active down to them not fighting wars right now.

One thing that occurred to me whilst making these graphs, is that if accounts are being sat, waiting to be gifted and the sitter is inactive the sat accounts also become inactive as well. Thus allowing for a sitter who is sitting 5 or 6 accounts to cause the loss of several million points. I would try and find an example in bang, however I'm not important enough to get enough privis.

I really enjoyed reading the info. Mabye adding more coulors to the % active and inactive so its not so hard to read the first time.. but i really liked it.

Point taken on board

 

[DeletedUser]

lol truscott, i dont think your leadership is even on to give u privs. Can you do me a small favor though and explain in what order the graphs are set up? ( left-right level by level? , up-down left to right?)

 

[DeletedUser]

Truscott: WOW!! That is really cool. I enjoyed seeing them, and can imagine (at least a little) the work that went into them...thank you!

 

[DeletedUser]

do these update?

 

[DeletedUser]

they are nice truscott don't listen to the criticizers they only do it on something like this cause there jealous they didn't think of it that's all good job some updates eventually would be cool i think i would concentrate more on tribes maybe and not players.