I did the math over skype to debbie (sweetmisery) the other day and we still have a while left on the server.
For a world to go into endgame, there needs to be 85% dominance by the top tribe or alliance (1984 + ODA) in terms of player villages.
As it currently stands, there are 140,714 villages. Lets just call that 141,000 for easy math. Lets assume by the end of the server, there will be around the same amount of player villages.
As you can see from this graph, the number of barbarians in the world is slowly decreasing due to barblers, but then it has a habit of surging back up again when players barb. Eventually the barblers will be nobled and/or quit (ie, szakferi appears to have given up the fight) so the number of barbs will pick up again. eventually.
According to the ingame rankings:
ODA have: 53189 villages
1984 have: 26464 villages
Unless my calculator is broke, we have 79653 villages collectively. Again, for easy maths, lets just say we collectively have 80k villages.
(80000/141000)*100= 56.74% dominance but lets just say 57%.
I mentioned before we needed 85% dominance to get to endgame right? well:
(141000/100)*85 = 119850
So we need roughly 120k villages collectively to put it to endgame.
we have 80k, so we need another 40k
according to
here ODA are up 5287 villages in the last 30 days.
According to
here, 1984 are up 1903 villages in the last 30 days.
So, 1984 + ODA are up 7190 villages in the past 30 days.
So, on an average day, the 2 are up 239.66667 villages. lets just say 240 for ease of numbers.
40000/240 = 166.66667 days. lets just say 167 for easier maths.
that is how long until the world will be put into endgame
thats about 5 and a half months.
So then the world is put into endgame, and a poll pops up ingame saying to end the world in 2 months, 3 months or at 100% domination.
this poll takes a couple weeks from what i understand, so lets bump that up to 6 months now.
In the earliest scenario choose-able (2 months) that means we have 8 months left on the world based on the above information
Well, so you would think. theres still a lot of factors left unconsidered.
We've just had 1/3 priced coins put in. Not to mention we will likely get 1/5 priced coins before endgame.
Some players in 1984 or ODA will probably barb (or even worse in terms of ending the world quickly, leave/be kicked). this will increase the time taken to end the world.
Then there's the fact that as the world goes on, less and less people continue to noble actively.
Also, will 1984 or ODA recruit anyone else before the world ends? I have to admit i will be a bit surprised if 0 -SOL- accounts end up on the winning side at the end of the world.
Not to mention all the rounding i did probably threw it off by a week or so
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tl;dr? we have about 8 months left.
