C4: 71.55% (+ 0.44%)
HHI: 14.52% (+ 0.16%)
C4: 69.56% (+ 0.54%)
HHI: 13.81% (+ 0.19%)
By popular demand:
Number of players that could be a top 20 tribe: 126 (+44)
Number of players that could be a top 15 tribe: 45 (+20)
From a CoP point of view, this has been a pretty slow week. Increases in C4 and HHI are far smaller than they normally are, and I can only assume that this is because the amount of targets outside the major tribes is drying up.
An interesting development this week can be seen in the last two stats. All of a sudden, getting into the top 20 and top 15 is a lot
easier. The likely reason for this is a consolidation of various smaller tribes into the new top 10 tribe STAR.
Project 1: Ups and downs
Last week, I did an analysis of the way conquers are distributed among the tribes. As some of you have pointed out to me, conquers do not tell the whole story; players may go barb, be recruited or dismissed, etc.
All valid arguments, but unfortunately I did not have the time to do a more comprehensive analysis last week. This week I'll make up for that by doing the same analysis but looking at points gains and losses instead of just conquers.
First, let's look at the tribes who gained more than 50K this week:
10 STAR 6.767.878
2 Plight 2.854.361
1 C² 1.839.585
4 BANG! 1.226.942
7 Ni! 1.135.588
3 LSHRV 969.015
5 TKR 693.275
19 I Wolf 614.015
14 I.A.R 189.946
36 OPPS! 103.053
How about the tribes who lost more than 50K?
6 Ad Inf -2.123.455
35 ~HF²~ -1.860.331
21 ~HF~ -1.593.057
25 AoFA -1.524.414
12 LSHRVa -669.618
16 -S-A- -549.453
15 cocane -438.698
11 Coal -233.714
34 ~TE~ -198.218
22 DmgInc -192.074
26 *~SS~* -130.517
18 ORC -124.011
38 Shroud -100.810
9 *MK* -96.885
27 ~KOTW~ -78.169
24 ~SAW~ -51.008
Here are some noteworthy observations:
- There are more losing tribes (16) than winning tribes (10)
- The losing tribes are on average much smaller (4.5 M) than the winning tribes (54.2 M)
- The amount of gains (16.4 M) exceeds the amount of losses (10.0 M) by a wide margin. This indicates that many players became tribeless or barbarian.
In general, it's safe to say that the bigger tribes are simply eating the smaller tribes at a steady pace...a sure way for concentration to go up. There is just one notable exception to this, and they're discussed below.
Project 2: A new force, or a new food source?
Some may not agree, but from an objective point of view one of the major events this week was that players from HF, HF², AoFA and an assortment of smaller tribes decided to team up and form the new top 10 tribe STAR. In this project, I will analyse them and see if the players that joined have gained anything with this merger aside from bragging rights for "being in a top 10 tribe".
First, let's look at where this tribe is concentrated:
2nd: 4 continents
3rd: 7 continents
4th: 11 continents
5th: 6 continents
6th: 3 continents
7th: 3 continents
8th: 1 continent
In other words, STAR has tribes in 35 continents while dominating none of them :icon_eek:. The only continent where they have more than a million points (2.1M in K15) is a Plight continent surrounded on 8 sides by other Plight continents.
STAR has 57 members, most of whom are under 100K. While there might be some potential in those players, they're hardly a threat to anyone. On the other side of the spectrum, their top ranked players are 157th, 249th and 268th, with the rest coming in outside the top 400. To give you an indication, the biggest player by far of STAR would not be in the top 40 players of Plight or C².
- 0508026B - took one non-barb in the past 5 weeks
- Khamrrahman - 15 tribe changes, 1 conquer, ranked outside the top 1000
Enough said, right?
Since they're recently formed, the in-game data shows about 600 players with a higher ODA than the entire tribe. However, the TW Stats data is probably more fair considering the circumstances. This shows them ranking 16th in ODA, just below the 9 remaining players in ORC and the 20 remaining inactives in LSHRVa.
While STAR may have entered the top 10 out of nowhere, this in itself is hardly an accomplishment. They have no concentrated power base anywhere while being spread all over the map, most of their members are small, their leadership is less than impressive, and they show little aggression.
Let's call this what it is: an attempt to point-whore into the top 10. The only true change they've brought to W16 is that most tribes can now easily mark all their food in bright red.
Food source it is.