kingraz

Well-Known Member
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And the story continues......

Sorry for the long wait guys, was busy in Real Life and power kept shifting in game as well.

W112 is getting bloodier as the world progresses. There are pockets of silence and explosions all around. We have seen three Rank #1 contenders in past couple weeks and the top 4 spots shuffling like musical chairs. Ultimately CICADA showed the reserve fire power and put the rank #1 shuffling to rest.

Lets Start with the Story number #1 - South East Quarter

I like to Call it ---- ""The Un-operated Tumors""
Starring: Cicada, JheeeZ and other ZZZZs, IYI, 3301 and special mention to our Veterans of South East WARPIGS!!!!


Lets have some stats for last month before getting into bloody business. Note: RiP Warpig, - their stats died with them.

Side 1:
Tribes: Cicada, 3301
Side 2:
Tribes: JheeeZ, JheeZ, JheezZ, Jhezzz, IYI

Timeframe: Last month

Total conquers:

Side 1:
1,384
Side 2: 1,566
Difference: 182

chart


Total conquers against opposite side:

Side 1:
124
Side 2: 78
Difference: 46

chart


Points value of total conquers:

Side 1:
8,251,991
Side 2: 11,492,886
Difference: 3,240,895

chart


Points value of total conquers against opposite side:

Side 1:
1,108,364
Side 2: 693,987
Difference: 414,377

chart

Story:

CICADA vs Jheeez is the best romantic action movie this world has ever seen. They weren't resisting each other from Day 1 and have gone against each others throat whenever they got a chance. Then it was a love triangle with ex servicemen Warpigs declared on Jheeez and most of us assumed Oh Jheeez it is going to be tough for the biggest family tribe then. Just like few famous battles, with determination, focus, a bit of a luck and deep reserve pockets Jheeez & Co avoided any kind of rimming possibility and in fact cleaned up Warpig to retire. All this with our current #1 tribe behind their back. That was some good stuff.

Though overall CICADA & Co has better stats vs JheeeZ & Co past month or even forever. Public opinion on forums were screaming they should have done more as Jheeez stole and plundered way too many villages than they had lost. Especially If we add Warpig into the stats, the effort put by Jheeez looks commendable.

May be Cicada have missed their golden opportunity or were they concentrating more on consolidation is up to debate. In the end they are #1 and seem to have good hold of their region and arguably one of the best spread with just two sides exposed in their triangle formation. One with the enemy and another with a friendly or neutral tribe SINTM.

Jheeez have almost no friends other than IYI, they are looking like the kid which our parents shun from playing. Yet the kid run around the park and do what they want to. Mind you, the kid if just left alone will grow to become a tough adult.

Jheeez seem like strong Germany of WW2, whereas CICADA looks like the tactical Brits and Warpig featuring as France - though they showed better fight than the country in WW2.

Chances of Quarter shift?
Theory 1:
Jheeez can try to secure a relationship of some sort with new powerhouses Munch & Run and concentrate on Cicada to change the % control in the region. This puts Jheez and Cicada on level playing field and should be interesting.
Theory 2: Cicada can do the same as theory one and put pressure on Jheeez on both sides. This might not pan out well for Jheeez as they will now face two fronts. The northern tribes are not Warpig to walkover.
Theory 3: Alliance of these two in rest of the world would trigger a huge cross quarter battles which would be chaos and fun. Here no matter what your talent is, numbers and position matters.
Theory 4: Jheeez if they convince SINTM into an alliance to attack CICADA. Then just like theory 2, one tribe will be cornered by two sides and advantage Jheeez & Co.

Sooner or later the eggs will fall off the basket one way or the other. This Quarter is called ""The Un-Operated Tumors"" because no matter what and who is fighting who, both these tribes have grown significantly without getting big hurt like a tumor but killed my favorite - Warpigs :D . A battle this long should have gone one way or the other, instead they keep growing like Un-Operated Tumors. Not sure who is going to operate the other first.
 

DaWolf85

Senior In-Game Staff
Tribal Wars Team
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I really appreciate what you're doing here and trying to make this thread, and liven up these forums. These sorts of threads have always been my favorite part of these forums.

That said... there is a significant amount of analysis here that is stunningly far from the mark. Of course, there is also a significant amount of information that cannot or should not be discussed publicly - so you may believe what you want. However, to someone with that knowledge, this really looks like someone staring at a map and going "Oh that would be a fun war" without really talking to anyone involved. Perhaps some interviews would have been a useful addition, to get a sense of how those in this area of the world feel about things.
 

kingraz

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I really appreciate what you're doing here and trying to make this thread, and liven up these forums. These sorts of threads have always been my favorite part of these forums.

That said... there is a significant amount of analysis here that is stunningly far from the mark. Of course, there is also a significant amount of information that cannot or should not be discussed publicly - so you may believe what you want. However, to someone with that knowledge, this really looks like someone staring at a map and going "Oh that would be a fun war" without really talking to anyone involved. Perhaps some interviews would have been a useful addition, to get a sense of how those in this area of the world feel about things.

The post is just an outlook from outside perspective and does not dwell on several factors which I or someone else knows. There are loads which I could have added and I know. But as a playing member, I cant go that way :)

I am pretty sure things are off the target as this only shows a recorded stat and ifs and butts from outside perspective.
 

Bloodhood

Part of the Furniture
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182
Agree with Wolf, you can't keep getting points for effort alone given the state of the content. You need some source of interest, originality or insight. There's just been a big op, yet all that's shown above is last month war stats, with some insults thrown in.

Being more constructive, if you did want to do more of this, worth looking at what others have done on previous worlds, interviews, maps, insights from others. How about ODA/ODD analysis, conquer maps, stats on the battle. Here's a troops killed analysis from that op that took less than 5 minutes:

1594942150158.png

Effort's great and all but it needs more.
 

Ticko49

Well-Known Member
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Don’t stop posting king enjoy reading these every now and then. But yeah getting a comment from each tribe mentioned would be cool also assuming they’d be willing to talk
 

AuroraMoon

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will there be more to the story??
will it include any other tribe?? (seems focused on jheez/cicada war so far)
is the story over??
 

Radioactive

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I personally enjoyed it however like Bloodhood said above. Including stuff like OD will tell a better story. Specially on a world with settings like this. Where in the last couple weeks Jheeez hasn't nobled anything really outside of recaps however the war stats show a different "story". OD tells the war story much better. Over the past month Jheeeez has very little ODA. Therefor almost all their caps have been recaps. But yet the stats show Jheeeez is only losing over the last month by 46 villages. When in reality they have lost more defense than they can afford even though they have been regaining villages back largely due to no outside support settings.

So there are many things you could do, to help display a bigger picture other than just posting war stats and theories on what could happen. Although I like it. You should ether leave the war stats out or dive deeper into them on a world with settings like these.
 

world8vet

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Agree with Wolf, you can't keep getting points for effort alone given the state of the content. You need some source of interest, originality or insight. There's just been a big op, yet all that's shown above is last month war stats, with some insults thrown in.

Being more constructive, if you did want to do more of this, worth looking at what others have done on previous worlds, interviews, maps, insights from others. How about ODA/ODD analysis, conquer maps, stats on the battle. Here's a troops killed analysis from that op that took less than 5 minutes:

View attachment 5148

Effort's great and all but it needs more.


The ratio isn't great
 

Snowbrand

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When in reality they have lost more defense than they can afford even though they have been regaining villages back largely due to no outside support settings.


They only lost half the amount of DV compared to the OV that they killed. Am I missing something?
 

Radioactive

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Offence builds way faster, though i'm not sure a ratio of 2.77 equates to "Losing too much D"

Again, you guys aren't thinking realistically just looking at the numbers. How many of these 100+ villages had offense they dodged, lost the village then recapped? So now we are talking about 40k/40k stack destroyed and a frontline nuke disappearing. When the other side simply lost nukes they expected to lose. Offense grows significantly faster than defense. (Can't remember the exact percentage) Not to mention now you add in the moral factor. You send 15 nukes expecting to lose those nukes. You don't send 40k stacks expecting to lose those stacks. So we are going into mental warfare and how will it impact them going forward. Will they try 60k stacks now? But then where will it leave them thin? Because if they can afford 60k stacks they would have done so in the first place.

There are a lot of factors that go into it other than "Side 1: 124 war caps, Side 2: 78 war caps in the last 30 days" is all I am trying to get at. Little to no ODA on one side shows most if not all the 78 war caps are recaps. Also shows 124 war caps from the other side were from operations with high ODA and timeliness of the attacks. Keeping only 46 of them isn't ideal but at the end of the day thats 78 villages that they no longer have any troops in specially if they were offensive frontline villages that they dodged the troops in during the attacks, on a world where is it going to be very challenging to keep war caps with the settings.
 

kokobest

Active Member
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Offense doesn't always rebuild faster, it depends.

Consider the following scenario:

it takes at least 10 nukes to clear a 40k/40k stacks, but that's just 4 DV

If 10 defense villages contributed equally to those 40k/40k, each village only has to rebuild 4k/4k, which actually rebuilds far faster than those 10 nukes.
 

Bloodhood

Part of the Furniture
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Agree with others above, HC / Sp builds around 15 days in this world, compared with 10.5 days offense. It doesn't really recruit that much faster. Further, once you factor in tribes using packet systems (split defences), this effect is largely neutralised. Although that may lead to the conclusion that defence is therefore superior, other than the fact it means you may only ever be standing still, defence's main weakness is that it's often in the wrong place (eg too far at the backlines, not sent as support or stacked somewhere not being attacked). Whereas offense will always be sent wherever the attacker believes optimal at the time of the op.

And as large offensives go, 2.27 ratio seems good to me, given stacks can easily kill 3-6x more defence. Worth noting it's still a high level estimate though. It assumes they've uniformly killed an average amount of hc/sp/sw, when in reality some ODA will have also been offenses, scouts, small defences with fangs etc But its not a bad estimate, even if you may want to round it down a bit.
 

One Last Shot...

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I actually disagree with the above comments criticising the OP who has a right to his own perspectives. I can see the reasoning, I might not agree with some aspects but that doesn't detract from the effort or the content.

In other words...that was a fun read - keep them coming :)
 
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