1/11 to get the Bonfire as a first weapon. When you start you are probably surrounded by 20-30 other players, and by those odds atleast 2 of those around you have the Bonfire. Even if they are poor players it will give them a significant advantage over the others. If they are good players they are virtually unstoppable. They are unstoppable because no other item can negate the Bonfire's effect or come close in matching it. But right now for instance, when the world is fairly developed, Bonfire is only fun and does not give any significant advantage because enough people have it, and so many have over 10 villages, so it is hard to implement it effectively or to your advantage.