Discussion in 'World 90' started by King Banana, Jan 18, 2017.
Nice declaration love me some star wars, good luck BIP!
TEA vs BiP - An analysis
I was a little bored, so I decided to talk a bit about TEA vs. BiP from a purely theoretical perspective to give an idea of what we might expect from the conflict. I'll try being as impartial as possible here and explore the conflict from a variety of angles.
This section covers all the major tribal level statistics. Most of these are from TWstats though I have calculated a few of the ones which TWstats reports inaccurately:
To be honest, the two top tribes are superficially similar on the macro level. Both tribes have similar total size, similar number of members and therefore similar average size. I’d also say that the ODA/ODD indicate a roughly equal amount of offensive presence and defensive pressure withstood over the course of the world. Yes TEA’s is higher, but taking into account the recent 2Hard merger, BiP has probably faced similar trials up until now and perhaps more given the size disparity.
The first striking difference comes at the percentage of barbarians the two tribes noble. Looking at the statistics, you can clearly see the majority of those BiP nobles taking place between 14th and 27th December throughout what I suppose was the 2Hard war. It does indicate there was some difficulty for BiP during that fight in terms of growth. How you perceive that depends on how you assess their opponent’s caliber, but regardless an interesting tidbit.
The best way to determine who is going to do well in fights is to simply just have a look at the map.
I’m going to leave Infamy out of this for now, but obviously they are a big factor hanging in that black space to the north.
Starting with the very obvious, there are basically three theatres of war, two major ones and a minor one with a potential to become major. I’ve separated them out on the map below:
Essentially, most of the fighting is probably going to, at least in the short term take place in theatres 1 and 2 when it concerns actual TEA players at the time of war (I understand that there is one ex-TEA member being munched). TEA will probably look at either surrounding and isolating or focusing down that central cluster. BiP will most likely look at consolidating the space between the main tribe and the cluster, though there is also the option of closing the gap between TEA and BiP in theatre 3.
On the very macro level, who has the advantage depends on what you value. TEA probably has more villages on the front, but conversely means they have more to protect and to be exploited. The interesting part of the BiP front is that jutted out cluster. A lot on how BiP does in the war depends on the performance of that cluster in the short term and whether BiP can pull off better surrounds than TEA. BiP does have the option on the macro level on pivoting between theatre 1 and 2 as a mixup in extended Ops. Theatre 3, at least in the short term I expect to be quite boring and go relatively even assuming no major mistakes. The front is not large enough for either side to really gain much traction yet. If the gap is closed between TEA and BiP in K55, then it could start heating up.
Micro visualization of major theatres of war
When it comes to the major theatre of war, there are essentially twelve frontline players who will be putting in the lions share of the work from TEA’s side. When looking at the front offensively, TEA’s major areas where they should look to put on pressure is in the very south K45/55 as well as K44 and North K54. Most likely the latter is probably the best bet for TEA since that’s where they have the highest concentration of players (I say all the above in terms of what is optimal, there is an element of mind games that come into war). Defensively, HardNutz and King Silva are very likely to be focused down, especially King Silva. Am somewhat surprised that there hasn’t been more of an effort to share the burden through village swaps to create an offensive bunker rather than having a few vulnerable players. The front on the TEA/Infamy front is a lot better in that respect.
Those two do instantly come to mind, but Good Game? looks like another possibility for a BiP target. Five players essentially hold the vast majority of the front so a lot of TEA’s strategy will come down to how individual players perform in terms of pressure in order to prevent a situation where BiP can stack 60-100 or so villages and wall. If it comes to bunkering down, a good way to increase TEA players on the front would be to attack Kraken which should probably be easy takes.
BiP have slightly more players on the front with fifteen major players and perhaps three or four minor players, which I’d put three to four more than TEA overall. Offensively from this perspective, King Silva looks like the obvious target to gangbang. It is possible for them to attack HardNutz and no doubt they will given the probable beef with 2Hard and HardNutz, but it is slightly more difficult logistically assuming he is competent. Defensively, LawandOrder1, F.K.A and Finewe are probably the most vulnerable players. That being said, depending on the abilities of HardNutz, King Banana may be one to look out for. Villages taken off a leader are a multitude more valuable than those taken off a member.
The general cluster looks relatively solid and BiP seems less reliant on individual play to succeed. That said, their position does rely somewhat on no collapses. Lost One, Lee Hughes or Tavomama69 for example collapsing under pressure would be more disastrous for BiP since it would snowball into far more pressure and vulnerability and cause a collapse in the entire cluster. That could be something that TEA could look towards. BiP does have other options than these two players offensively at least when it comes to nobling on the local level in central K54 for example.
Visualisation of the Eastern front
I’ve made a more messy visualization by putting on both sides here just to save some time. Not much to really be said about this front other than it needs a bit more developing before it becomes a major theatre of war.
There is one interesting part about this front, which is the existence of P-W who are aligned with TEA. It opens up more possibilities for TEA, but the front itself still needs 2-3 weeks of work before it becomes really hostile. For the most part, the moment, the two major players that are vulnerable are Sandover from BiP and Omg a Reddy from TEA assuming no major inactive players etc.
The real question is what is the best way to open the front and who benefits. This to me really depends on where the front is opened up. I think BiP could do very well to close the gap in K55, though it would take a lot of work.
I’ve kind of left out the Elephant in the room, Infamy. How do they fit into this? Needless to say, they have large fronts with both tribes and enough mass to become a kind of deal breaker in the war. The question then is who has the best diplomacy in that case. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for Infamy to go either way. Currently I think they can afford to let Tea/BiP fight on their own and increase the war weariness of whatever enemy they choose.
My personal opinion? I’d lean towards TEA getting gangbanged. Some people just have the curse of being born and TEA is one of those tribes. Reputation is a very fickle thing. What does this mean for the battlefield? Another front to consider, troops probably need holding back in certain cases and making sure your tribe is ready for the worst case scenario.
Great effort and spot on analysis!!
Possibly the worst 'declaration' i have ever seen...
Kicked for stats? Lol, lets go with that.
Awesome Analysis there nemesis.
Great job on the analysis!
Good Analysis Nemesis Just i would like to add my thought on three front you Positioned
Theater 1. - This Front is really Key for winning this war, Because of 5 major players presence in this Sector ; Hardnutz, TREX, .Facepalm, Hydra of Lerna and Sweetmisery, If anyone know the internal leadership and influence of players in TEA they know, what vote/power these players hold excluding Hardnutz.
I doubt that at this front alone BIP can defeat TEA and the reason in my analysis i showed 2 arrow one for BIP and another for Infamy to attack. Why this front is So Important ?
1. HARDNUTZ who not going to get full tribal support when BIP and INFAMY attack and possibly again HARDNUTZ turn face which is real BAD for TEA.
2. When TREX account face pressure than Jake and other co-player feel the Heat and under heat how jake react we all know, i am still waiting for good PnP< Jake you listening ??
3. If above mentioned player start losing villages here a complete chaos develop in TEA and Almurph wont be able to manage it and final result will be TEARING APART(Broken TEA POT )
Theater 2 - Here King SILVA is main target including TREX, i think winning is Great Morale Booster for BIP and an edge over TEA, the villages were taken here will become launching pad towards South EAST.
Nice Hammering require though here cause of sea shore of TEA villages down south backing this area, so Small initiative require in Theater 3 so defense wont move.
Theater 3 - This front is going to long and boring . but if strategically count this one will be the finale NAILING.
So what are the official and non official reasons for noble king no longer being in TEA?
Unofficial: who knows
Official: 'Cause Stone Cold said so.
Timeframe: Last 24 hours
Side 1: 140
Side 2: 100
Total conquers against opposite side:
Side 1: 84
Side 2: 7
Points value of total conquers:
Side 1: 1,170,048
Side 2: 672,923
Points value of total conquers against opposite side:
Side 1: 764,867
Side 2: 64,273
King Banana - Lovely declaration, thanks for taking the time to get something decent done.
Nemesis - I'm really enjoying reading the posts you do when you're bored , thanks man!
I'd just like to add that Infamy can keep cool here, and even play a double sided game, where they can support both tribes or PA's from either side, but not engage, or just not get involved in any way whatsoever, and simply wait to see who collapses first and then take the best, or the players they find fit to join them.
I really don't know how wars have evolved lately, usually they don't last more than what a month, a couple months, till one key player breakes, leadership really starts feeling the pressure of leading an entire tribe, I don't know, maybe that would be something good to get from the stats, you know, how long did X against Y war lasted in World Z after W days and so on, or some sh-- like that, or maybe not, I'm just a stats freak, I guess.
To sum it up, if Infamy joins one of the sides, they'll have to deal with the other sooner or later, and by the way things look, non-Infamy side will always be bigger, not saying better, but bigger than Infamy, and if a war this scale really lasts just a couple months, maybe it's worth holding to see if they can get bigger/even, not necessarily better, than the winning side.
Good luck to both sides, I hope you kick each player that starts getting his/her ass nobled, so we can start seeing some real flaming around here over that crap
I like the declaration, some effort is nice!
And nemesis! Great job dont care if ur spot on or not, good read and personally i think many things are spot on there.
Good luck to bip and tea, will be interesting to see if tea can handle real war that might actually last for some time.
Its always interesting to me how people love to mention 'real wars' in relation to TEA, leaves me wondering what is a real war. Weren't antz/WET F/2hard real wars?
Only the current war is ever considered a real war!
Good luck to both sides, but I'm rooting for BiP!
I think when they kicked me that was classed as a full scale tribe war for TEA
Incoming Impact v TEA .
4 OPS Down and Incoming Impact still standing.
TEA then decide to plan a op on my Operation Date because they are scums
Buddy, recruiting top members of tan already weak enemy causing them to buckle completely with the first op is NOT a real war no matter how much it hurts TEA's ego.
To be fair, this is really the first large scale war we have seen so faron this world, in which i highly doubt one side or the oother will buckle soon. It will be interesting to see how it all goes down, interesting to see TEA's counterattack.
@DA, thanks for continuing to lurk w90 forums, you provide good reads, both interesting and experienced opinions.
Your face statement is rather illogical and far from the realism of war. Even in the most realistic sense, wars are done through a combination of other aspects such diplomatic trades, strategic recruitment and obvious brute force, saying a war isn't real simply because not only brute force was used is rather ignorant, in fact thats akin to saying that a tribe hasn't fought a real war if diplomacy was involved for instance.
P.S: I honestly don't understand how one could separate say recruitment for instance as if it isn't an acceptable mode of retaliation.If there are weaknesses and inefficiencies that prevent a tribe from being holistically stable then they should obviously be exploited this extends to not just recruitment but taking advantage of isolated fronts, weaknesses in a tribe's diplomatic relations; these are all related and indeed impacting on the success of a tribe. This is not simply confined within the dimensions of tribal wars but even to the real world...
Therefore i think its rather petty to try to trivialize a tribe's success is such areas by saying 'uhh well there are no real wars cuz recruitment'. I'm not a spokesperson for Tea neither do I have an 'ego' to protect (anyone who knows me can attest to that), but I simply don't see the credence in your statement.
Furthermore i would like to know how you define the term 'weak' in your statement above, 2hard declared on TEA; that's hardly from a position of weakness imo, so in that sense i would like to know your defining characteristics that determine whether you consider a tribe weak or not.
Please Do reply.(anyone else is free to)
Raavna, not sure how to explain it to you, but when you are not such a quality player in game, your posts can be ignored doesn't matter how many gifs u add to them.
I'll have a candid confession for you: If they will throw nukes ramless as you are doing it...your wishes to them to have luck won't be enough
I am sorry to be the only one here to say that your analysis are a complete fail. Why? Because you didnt include Infamy who is also attacking us and i have reports to show.
So, pls be kind and incluse Infamy on those statistics, then we talk... till then, nice job but it is irrelevant. (no need to leave out the elephant)
and, on another note..you forgot to mention on "other factors" that we are hitted by others, too....like FARM, for exempla. So, there is more pressure on us than u included in those statistics.
I do get where you are coming from in this statement, and it would still be classed as a war I guess, but in some circumstances when players have been invited 1 ops put in place and the other tribe has collapsed. I would go as far as to say that is an attack. A very large scale attack, but then that has been the end, and turned into expansion as normal, which we do not class as war.
But also on that point I know some people have been around for a while. And the significant thing missing for me was that back in worlds gone by' there would be wars that could last for months even years. And then diplomacy may change (neither sides disbanded or joined), then you would war someone else. Now I know I am going off topic.
But as I have mentioned before with TEA and others have said it to, their tactic has been great. But I could not say they have been at war with anyone. Because the way they have conducted their war each time (the preparation, the diplomacy and recruitment) has ensured a quick easy win. And it has been a single op or attack and then job done. Everyone falls apart. However this seems to be how things are conducted now, not just TEA but all major tribes, just TEA have done it better.
I do honestly hope this will be a long good fight, it benefits my tribe greatly MORTAL. Having a spot of trouble with TEA so may ease the pressure going forward.